Leadership Cycles
Small Cap Premium Finally Shrinks—But Remains Historically Extreme
July’s Russell 2000 -6% rout finally deflated some of the Small Cap valuation premium we’ve been grousing about in recent years.
Quality Stock Rankings: Low Quality Momentum Persists
Low Quality Momentum persists, and a look at how Valuation factors affect the Quality model output.
How Long Can Small Caps Lead?
The Russell 2000 is about five points ahead of Large Caps YTD, and is approaching its April 2011 long-term relative peak. We view this outperformance as their leadership’s last gasp and not a new cycle.
Small Cap Stocks: Hard To Make The Numbers Work…
Leuthold’s Doug Ramsey takes an in depth look at historical Small and Large Cap cycles and offers insight as to where we stand now and what can be expected going forward.
U.S. Small Caps: Carving Out A Very Long Top
The current period of small cap leadership is the longest ever. And while small caps have been selling at a premium, the premium has persisted for a long time.
Small Cap Appeal Is Fading
After already rallying substantially from the March lows, it will be tougher for small caps to continue their outperformance.
The Stampede That Wasn't
A month ago we suspected June might see a big institutional rush into the stock market. The stampede never came, though, and the market finished essentially flat for the month.
Positive Technical Trends
While there is plenty to worry about, some important technical trends still suggest that November 20, 2008 stands a good chance of being the final low of this bear market.
December Market Action
2008 is over. We expect 2009 to be better since worst-case scenarios now seem less likely to play out.
Bull Markets: The Best Comes First
New bull markets are front end loaded, with the strongest performance usually coming within the first few months. Study also shows that Small Cap Growth stocks tend to outperform their Large Cap and Value counterparts.
Small Cap Stocks: An Extension In Leadership?
Small Cap leadership trend maybe re-emerging. Doug Ramsey examines Small Cap performance coming out of bear markets. Historically, they have been able to do well as higher beta plays.
What Early Cycle Leadership Looks Like… An Historical Perspective
In the spirit of historical market research, we thought it would be a good time to revisit which industry groups perform best from bear market lows.
Consumer Goods Stocks Versus Commodity Stocks: Identifying Long-Term Leadership
Are we asking the wrong question about Consumer Stocks versus Staples? This month’s “Of Special Interest” looks at the relationship between all Consumer groups (both Discretionary and Staples) compared to Commodity related groups.
Cautious On Small Caps
Small Cap outlook continues to deteriorate. Despite recent underperformance, valuation premium is not shrinking.
Large-Cap Growth: Could A Long Wait Get Even Longer??
Valuations set the stage for better performance out of growth. But it is important to note that there’s precedent for the value cycle—seemingly already overextended in time and price—to get much more extended.
Is Performance Rotation Here To Stay?
Group rotation has made it tough for managers to outperform. There has been a lack of sustainable leadership.
Characteristics Of A Bear Market
Assuming a bear market has already begun, what can be expected?
Cyclical Stock Dominance — How Long Can It Persist?
An in-depth examination of performance relative to Growth stocks; what has been typical in terms of leadership duration; and how the economy and inflation may affect the current trend.
Leuthold Ten Factor Small Cap Leadership Model Update: Still Neutral
Market seems to be moving toward a possible leadership transition from small/mid caps to large caps. Small caps significantly lagged large caps in July, and also now lag YTD.
View From The North Country
Terrorist threats, rising oil prices, the war in Iraq, and upcoming presidential election seem to have taken center stage against a backdrop of impressive corporate earnings momentum.
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March 2026 Issue
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March 2026 Issue
