Large Caps

Dividends do matter, especially as an important component of total return. Also, a recent study published in the Financial Analyst Journal tries to get at the root of large cap, growth stock dominance in the 1990s.

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If small caps can move back above the October 1999 level in the coming months, this would certainly be encouraging for small cap fans and may even signal a change in the trend to confirm that leadership is indeed moving to the small cap arena.

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Small cap performance actually nosed out Big Cap +19.6 for Russell 2000 and +19.5% for S&P 500 (price only). Who would have believed it?

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A unique way to monitor and react to changing stock market capitalization leadership trends. This new study examines the percent of stocks lagging the S&P 500, segmented by capitalization tiers.

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There were unprecedented sudden and dramatic changes in market character in April. Have Cyclicals become the new market leaders? Is Value investing finally going to start paying off again? Is the extended period of small cap underperformance finally over?

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Q1 1999 following the same market script of 1995-1998, with big cap stocks, especially Nifty Fifty types, dominating smaller companies in terms of market performance.

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The second half of 1998 got off with a thud for most managers. It is becoming increasingly evident that we are in a two tiered market—the only positive relative performance is from the largest of the big cap “growth” stocks.

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Institutions' preference for liquid big caps have made it very difficult for most portfolio managers to keep up with the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ year to date.

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There are signs of an earnings slowdown especially within the big cap arena...small cap earnings have held up relatively better.

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The market finished the first quarter of1998 strong, with the S&P 500 up 13.5% and the Dow Jones flirting with the 9000 milestone. Expectations for April? More of the same. Nothing on horizon to shake individual investors’ confidence.

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Doubtful, at this point. Relative performance “catch up” not conclusive...Abnormal downdraft in large caps a big contributing factor.

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Big cap bias in market may be driven by increased enthusiasm for index funds. S&P becoming difficult to beat, P/E ratios of Royal Blue tiers compressing.

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No January effect this year. It was a large cap show, with the DJIA (+5.4%) outperforming 85%-90% of stock groups and sectors for the month and the S&P trouncing about 70%.

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The moving average was broken on the upside in March and relative performance was flat in April. In anticipation of this basic change in market focus our equity model has built up secondary stock exposure.

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