Large Caps

Small Cap Premium Continues Upward To 23%. Large Caps Lead On The Downside In January

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Small Caps are close enough to a new relative strength high that it’s possible a final revision might be necessary before the Small Cap tide flows out.

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Small Cap Premium Continues Upward To 21%. The red-hot equity market of 2013 was especially good for Small Caps with a +38.8% total return.

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The investment leadership of a given year has historically had better-than-even odds of outperforming in the following year at both the asset class and equity sector levels.

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Small Caps are selling at a 20% valuation premium relative to Large Caps, using non-normalized trailing operating earnings.

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Small Caps are selling at a 16% valuation premium relative to Large Caps, using non-normalized trailing operating earnings. Using estimated operating earnings, Small Caps are selling at a higher valuation premium of 23% (25% last month).

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The Russell 2000 is about five points ahead of Large Caps YTD, and is approaching its April 2011 long-term relative peak. We view this outperformance as their leadership’s last gasp and not a new cycle.

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Large Caps lost 2.9% (total return) in August, just ahead of Small Caps (-3.2%) and Mid Caps (-3.8%). YTD, Small Caps continue to perform ahead of the other two subsets.

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Small Caps are selling at a 15% valuation premium relative to Large Caps, using non-normalized trailing operating earnings. This is the same as the past two months’ readings. Using estimated 2013 operating earnings, Small Caps are selling at a higher valuation premium of 23% (24% last month).

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We’ve noted before that profit margin gains since the technology boom have been primarily a Large Cap phenomenon.

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Large Caps gained 5.1% (total return) in July, lagging Small Caps (+7.0%) and Mid Caps (+6.2%). YTD, Small Caps are now ahead of the other two subsets, and Large Caps are the laggards.

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Small Caps are selling at a 15% valuation premium relative to Large Caps, using non-normalized trailing operating earnings. This is the same as last month’s reading. Using estimated 2013 operating earnings, Small Caps are selling at a higher valuation premium of 24% (25% last month).

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While U.S. stocks have surged this year, Emerging Markets have languished. What is going on in Emerging  Markets to cause this unusual situation?

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In this note, we discuss our market-level measure of quality, and highlight an expanded methodology for determining the “quality” of a stock and the performance implications associated with such a concept.

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Leuthold’s Doug Ramsey takes an in depth look at historical Small and Large Cap cycles and offers insight as to where we stand now and what can be expected going forward.

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From the stock market to politics to football, Doug Ramsey offers up ten predictions and thoughts for the New Year…. Even though we’ve already had a one month “peek” at 2012.

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Current record high corporate Profit Margins examined in this month’s “Of Special Interest.” Topics include the sustainability of the trend, commodities as profit trackers, margins as a potential forecasting tool and discussion on profits by sector and market cap. 

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Over this entire period, the S&P has narrowly beaten the Russell 2000, but not by much.

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These once elite companies have continued to turn in good earnings growth. The problem had been that the prices had moved far too high. After a few years of declining prices, the valuations are once again looking very compelling.

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