Health Care

While the valuation gap between Growth and Value sectors was compelling just a couple of years ago, it has closed drastically the last twelve months. Our analysis shows that Value sectors (Energy, Industrials) are still more favorable than Growth sectors (IT, Health Care).

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Utilities, Real Estate, and Consumer Staples are the bottom three sectors among the GS Scores. 

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The S&P 500 had an almost biblical upheaval to start 2023. The “last were first” and the “first were last.” In January, the 100 worst performing stocks of 2022 had an average return of +16.1% while last year’s 100 best performers posted +1.7%.

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The six-week rally that started mid-June featured advances from AAPL (+25%), AMZN (+30%), and TSLA (+39%), which accounted for one-fourth of the S&P 500’s gain. Despite the recent preference for Value, a spike in interest rates, and the bear market, the index’s concentration in the top-five firms is still near it’s all-time high set in August 2020.

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Health Care has been resilient this year, but will that continue in the run-up to the presidential election?  We look at the performance of the Attractively-ranked industry groups and how they have historically performed leading up to an election and post-election. 

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Health Care has been the best performing sector following mid-February’s market peak. Its robust relative performance during this bear market isn’t terribly surprising given the sector’s defensive qualities, but it has impressively outpaced other safe haven areas.

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This “decade in review” edition examines the performance of sectors and industries, looking at the best and worst groups to reveal the stories they have to tell.

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· From a factor performance standpoint, 2019 is looking a lot like 2018, with expensive Momentum names outperforming everything else and Value struggling.

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The top-three rated sectors are Health Care, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary. Scoring lowest in the latest rankings are Energy, Materials, and Financials.

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The top-three rated sectors are Communication Services, Health Care, and Consumer Discretionary. Scoring lowest with the latest ratings were Materials, Energy, and Industrials.

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The top-three rated sectors are Health Care, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary, with Information Technology dropping from the top-three. Rounding out the bottom end of the rankings, for the second consecutive month, are Materials, Energy, and Consumer Staples.

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For the sixth consecutive month, the top-three rated sectors are Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, and Info Tech. Rounding out the bottom end of the rankings are Materials, Energy, and Consumer Staples.

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Recently, Health Care stocks have been making headlines as the sector rallies to new all-time highs. However, when we look at the sector via Leuthold’s proprietarily-built industry group composition—which has a more realistic market-cap weighting approach—the Health Care sector has been outperforming since the end of 2017, and YTD it is the #1 performing sector in our work.

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Following a seven-month stint as the highest-rated sector overall, Consumer Discretionary relinquished the throne to Health Care.

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A look at Health Care groups’ historical performance both pre-election and post-election; we identify past trends of leaders and laggards in each period.

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Relative valuations of Staples and Utilities sectors already reflect a “flight to quality” effect. Investors looking to add some economic/stock market defense should focus on the cheaper Health Care groups.

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Among the bottom ranked sectors are Utilities, Materials, Energy, and Telecom Services. These four sectors have been the bottom four rated sectors for a minimum of eight months.

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Our original research on price momentum dates back to the late 1960s, and was based not on asset classes but on equity sectors and industry groups. We stumbled upon the Bridesmaid effect, in fact, while testing a handful of simple strategies about a decade ago.

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A reversal in momentum, driven by the oil and commodity stocks’ rebound, caused investors to take gains from Health Care positions. We’re still big fans of Health Care and think recent weakness is more of a correction within a sector bull market than the start of a full-fledged bear.

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Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials are the top three rated broad sectors.

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