Health Care

While we view the industry group selection as the most important decision, looking at the sector level rankings also helps us identify broad trends. Here we highlight the top two rated sectors, currently, which also represent a combined >40% weight in our Select Industries Portfolio.

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Last month’s tactless comments from MIT health care economist Jonathan Gruber contained an (accidental) investment nugget we’ve alluded to several times in the last three years (and, no, it does not relate to the “stupidity of the American voter” or investor).

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This group offers low correlation, some defensive qualities, and a dose of volatility. Health Care is now the top rated broad sector and we are overweight this sector in Select Industries Portfolio.

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U.S. demographic and economic trends coupled with meaningful expansion of the insured population should continue to support Health Care Facilities.

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We examine the impact of March’s strong group leadership reversal on the top and bottom of our group model.

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All ten of the S&P 500 sectors recorded a sequential increase in four-quarter trailing net profit margins. But consider where sector margins stand today relative to their 25-year medians. Eight of ten S&P 500 sectors are recording profit margins well above their long-term medians.

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Three groups currently rank Attractive in the GS Scores: Health Care Distributors, Managed Health Care, and Health Care Equipment.

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Looking forward, groups from the Information Technology, Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials sectors look appealing.

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The investment leadership of a given year has historically had better-than-even odds of outperforming in the following year at both the asset class and equity sector levels.

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Following a great year for trend-following, capitalizing on key reversals in sector performance will be important in winning the 2014 performance derby.

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Among the few things untouched by the Obamacare rollout are the rising relative strength patterns of most health care stocks.

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Despite continued question marks surrounding the effects of Health Care Reform, sentiment seems to have shifted for the better, and a number of broad industry drivers are trending in a promising direction. This group currently has three categories rating Excellent in our domestic group model.

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Both models (particularly domestic) have a number of Attractive rated Information Technology groups and no Unattractive rated Tech groups. Financials’ domination of the Global Attractive range continues.

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We’ve noted before that profit margin gains since the technology boom have been primarily a Large Cap phenomenon.

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Excellent scores in three of six model categories, plus it offers plenty of market cap and low beta relative to other Health Care groups. We think it will benefit from broad, long-term industry trends.

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But Information Technology rises to the top of the Domestic model, while the trend of Financials domination in the Global model remains intact.

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Our Domestic Scores have five Financials groups rating Attractive; these same five industry groups are Attractive in our Global model. In total, seven Financials groups rank Attractive in the Global model, with insurance groups looking particularly Attractive.

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We’ve published a series of research notes detailing our thoughts on the Health Care sector in Emerging Asia and formed a thematic group “Asia Healthy Tigers.” Even though most of the investable companies in Emerging Market Health Care are located in Asia, we decided to expand to other regions as well. 

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