Growth

There were unprecedented sudden and dramatic changes in market character in April. Have Cyclicals become the new market leaders? Is Value investing finally going to start paying off again? Is the extended period of small cap underperformance finally over?

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Q4 1991 through Q2 1995, earnings growth and the stock market were in synch... not anymore.

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Corporate earnings growth was well below the trendline during the period of 1988-1993. Overall, earnings growth is now moving back in line with long term trends.

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At this point, we do not see any clear signs that historical earnings consistency leads to outperformance relative to inconsistent earnings companies.

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In late February, the stock market moved to new highs. The DJIA broke above its 4000 barrier on a 4.4% gain for the month, while the S&P 500 rose 3.6%. Only four of our 61 groups turned in negative performance during February.

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Big cap growth stocks appear to be in the early stages of regaining leadership from the “tired” cyclicals and “overvalued” value stocks.

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Growth stocks have been out of favor over the past 3-4 year, but look poised to regain leadership over the next 6-12 months.

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Based on the analysis herein, combined with the lack of earnings progress since 1988, we conclude that future earnings growth projections in our earnings model may be too conservative.

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When value investing requires so much effort just to locate purchase candidates, you might want to re-evaluate your equity sector asset allocation strategy if you have that option. What do the growth stocks look like?

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A number of modifications were made in the screening process as we attempted to exclude stocks with fading earnings momentum. It appears our modifications have been effective.

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West Coast Client Trip...Remembering Henri de La Chapelle...Twin Cities Presentation of “Other People's Money”... Comparing Large Firms Earnings Growth with Small Firms

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In recent months we have been increasingly impressed by the improving relative performance of consumer growth stocks. This month a four stock package of consumer growth stocks was introduced as a formal portfolio sector.

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Based on past history, future long-term earnings growth assumptions of 7% (much less 10%) border on being out of touch with reality.

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This issue we are adding two new sectors to our equity model, one being a conceptual theme (“Buy Texas”) and one a Quantitative Theme based computer screen (“Emerging Growth”).

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This issue we are making this computer screened quantitative theme a formal part of the equity model portfolio. It had been absent from the model since the fall of 1983. Floyd and Leuthold have tuned up this screen over the last few years and believe it is an excellent stock selection technique for the current environment.

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While blue chip growth stocks look cheap relative to low P/E stocks, they don’t look so cheap compared to recent earnings growth rates.

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Jim Floyd has run new computer screens for the Consumer High Growth sector, Regional Bank Double Plays, The Undervalued & Unloved issues and the Growth Stock Bargain Basket.

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We have just updated three of our quantitatively screened sectors, “Consumer High Growth Stocks,” “The Growth Bargain Basket” and the “Undervalued & Unloved.” A great number of new stocks have qualified. This section describes the screens, presents the past performance and lists the additions and deletions for each.

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The screens employed in one of our conceptual equity screens seem to have outlived their usefulness. Modifications have been made and a new list of undervalued growth stocks produced.

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Once a quarter, sometimes more, a variety of stock selection screens are run. Some of these screens are important factors in the current equity portfolio structure. Here are some highlights from three of these screens.

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