Downside
Weekly New High/New Low Data Not Yet Indicating A Stock Market Bottom
We meticulously comb through the lists of weekly new highs and new lows so that we exclude those derivatives and non-operating companies, in order to get a true picture of the stock market health.
View From The North Country
We may or may not be close to entering a new cyclical bear market, but as we view it, the risk has risen significantly.
View From The North Country
The perils of speculation in Housing…..lessons people are now learning. Also, client questions....and Leuthold's answers.
Constructing A History Of The "Estimating The Downside" Calculation
Historical tracking of our multi-factor valuation model.
No Capitulation Yet
The stock market's decline has been relentless and now even Small Caps have joined the retreat. But, while mutual fund investors have been skittish, they have not panicked up to now. Also, is this a Secular Bear Market?
Technology: What’s The Downside?
Not even the mighty techs are immune to saturation, overcapacity, cyclicality, and fierce competition.
In “Never Never Land”
It’s “Never Never Land”...stock market now above all past valuation extremes. Ultimately, a big bear market is out there, but shorter term it may go higher.
Estimating Current Stock Market Downside
Leuthold current studies show significant downside potential from current levels. Today’s market valuation now more extreme than 1987’s, and far above historical medians.
Estimating Current Stock Market Downside
Current studies show significant downside potential from current levels. Today's market valuation now more extreme than 1987's, and far above historical medians.
Major Stock Market Positives and Negatives
A review of the significant stock market positives and negatives as I currently see them. There are now five major positives and five major negatives.
Major Stock Market Positives and Negatives
A review of the significant stock market positives and negatives as I currently see them. There are now five major positives and five major negatives.
Major Stock Market Positives and Negatives
During the month of January, two major stock market positive factors became more positive, three remained about the same, and one became less positive. Among the four negative factors, all four became more negative.
Comparing the 1987 Stock Market Peak With Today
Recent market discussion has centered around comparisons of today’s stock market with 1987. In order to summarize the comparisons, we have put together a table containing over 30 factors that have stock market significance.
A Fresh Look at Upside and Downside Potential
Even after the March correction, this valuation exercise uncovers only limited upside (+15% to 1987 peaks) and significant downside (-25%, back to median valuations).
How High Is High?/How Low Is Low?
An update of The Leuthold Group’s Intrinsic Value Benchmarks provides a way of estimating upside and downside potential for the DJIA and S&P 500. How much higher might the stock market go in the next year…..and what is the bear market downside risk?
How High Can This Market Go?
Some prognosticators have pretty fair records in predicting the direction of the market, but it is very difficult to pinpoint the strength of major advances and declines. Rather than just pull a number out of a hat, the best approach to quantifying how far this market can go is to look at The Leuthold Group’s Benchmarks.
Projecting Stock Market Levels Using Intrinsic Value Benchmarks
How far would today’s stock market have to fall to achieve normal benchmark valuation levels? How far would it have to fall to reach 1987 post-crash levels? On the brighter side, how far up would today’s market have to move to match the valuation extremes of 1987’s third quarter?
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
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March 2026 Issue
