Commentary
Inside the Stock Market
The Major Trend Index still looks bullishly healthy, but our Early Warning work indicates a 7%-10% correction might be expected soon. Perhaps after a September rally.
Inside the Stock Market
The Major Trend Index continues to look bullishly healthy and, shorter-term, more upside is expected this summer. The Early Warning work remains positive.
Half Time
Drug stocks and Regional Banks helped us to a 21% gain in the first half of 1985, but are now being reduced. In the last half, our major bets are on technology, and selected cash cows, with perhaps a boost from consumer glamour growth stocks. Some consideration is also being given to an S&L play.
Inside the Stock Market
It didn’t seem like much, but June turned out to be all right. Net gains for the averages were in the 1-2% range, but our model gained close to 3%. Annualized, that’s not bad.
View from the North Country
Observations from the May Market Technicians Association gathering at Hilton Head and a disturbing recent 400-mile drive through the grain belt. For good measure we have thrown in an update on improving agricultural productivity around the world.
As the World Turns
Private pension funds as a class can no longer be looked to as big net buyers of stock. More and more, the individual is assuming direct or indirect responsibility for his or her retirement assets. We view this as a secular trend, not a short-term aberration.
Inside the Stock Market
May was a surprisingly good month. After flashing an intermediate term caution warning in March, the Early Warning work moved back to the positive side May 13. The Major Trend Index improved this month and I think stocks could move up further than most think.
View from the North Country
The View from Down Under…Answering Some Questions: questions and comments about last issue’s essay on “The Value of Independence”…Yours from Minnesota, Ohio
Inside the Stock Market
March was a month of divergences, but April is expected to be a good up month. The Major Trend Index remains comfortably positive, though less so than a month ago. Our Early Warning Work still advises some short-term caution, but could change momentarily.
When is the Last Time You Exclaimed, “AHA!”?
Back in June 1984, after returning from the Market Technicians annual rendezvous, I enthusiastically wrote about a presentation given by Ted Theodore of Morgan Stanley Asset Management on the roles of lateral and vertical thinking in investment management. Here it is, reprinted with Ted’s permission.
View from the North Country
Seventeen inches of snow is one view from the North Country. Read on to find a somewhat less pleasant view, a discussion of the farm crisis, including its implications for common stock investors as well as longer term ramifications.
View from the North Country
It Feels Good: For the first time in a long time, equities are more heavily weighted than bonds in our Asset Allocation Models… Wanted: Potential High-Tech Survivors: We want to add about five more names to the potential survivor list and are open to suggestions… Pension Fund Shrink: The dramatic changes now taking place in private pension funds and the investment implications thereof.
The Financial Department Store: Vision or Mirage?
It seems many of the financial department store builders may have lost touch with realities. Upscale financial product consumers, the most profitable market, are looking for expertise, not breadth.
Should You Buy America’s Best Managed Companies??
In Search of Excellence, a new book on outstanding corporate managements is all the rage. But, as the authors indicate, it is not an investment book. We have extensively tested the past investment results achieved investing in companies with “best-management” reputations. It is not good.
View from the North Country
“The Analyst Looks at Baseball” - Several analytical approaches are applied, combining team payrolls, runs scored, games won and attendance in an effort to determine who are the best and worst baseball teams.….”Don’t Always Underestimate the Banks” - Soon banks will be offering their own money market funds. Existing money market funds say they are not worried about the competition. They should be.
View from the North Country
In recent weeks, this writer has again been poking around rural middle America, updating work presented in past issues of this publication for a Barron’s article. Here are some new things I have learned, also a few revised observations, some perhaps not quite appropriate for the Barron’s article. Also, no matter what Janet Norwood and her crew at the Bureau of Labor Statistics say, real estate prices in the real world are coming down.
Back Down on the Farm
Last issue’s feature on farmland prices and home prices seemed to generate considerable interest. At the risk of seeming excessively provincial, we will again focus on farm problems, including new Department of Agriculture land price data and the reasons why the intrinsic value of farmland may actually be depreciating.
On Buying the “Best Managed” Companies
Does it pay to buy companies Wall Street widely recognizes as having good management? Probably Not! This study examines 45 companies which over the last ten years have received the “best managed” accolade. What happened, to their earnings, dividends and the stock prices after being anointed “best managed”?
View from the North Country
The weather is awful here. Who has more brains, ducks that fly south or Minnesotans who stay home?
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