Commentary

Holiday Wishes...New Quarterly Publication BenchMarks Will Be Introduced and Sent at No Extra Cost to All Clients... Client Questions Answered

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Three weeks on holiday unclutters the mind and clutters the desk. I can’t get excited about New Zealand’s bond market. Yields, while down recently, are still high, but the Kiwi dollar may soon move significantly lower.

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here is a lot to write about this issue, including a number of equity portfolio changes and shifting sector strategies. But this publication must also uphold a cherished February tradition.

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Another New Year has arrived.

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Maybe it's a Minnesota year - the Twins win the World Series and Northwest Airlines leads the pack terms of customer complaints! Also, tracking the impact of Black October around the world.

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Here are some of the client questions that have been raised recently. Perhaps some of you have some of these same questions.

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If you haven’t done so already, I highly recommend you spend some time with the June 1987 20th Anniversary issue of Institutional Investor. Here, we are reproducing one of those remembrances, as Don Weeden recalls his earlier battles with the New York Stock Exchange.

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For those who have survived, things are looking up down on the farm. Land prices are down through most of the Midwest, close to matching the previous great farmland bear market, 1920 to 1932. We think farmland is bottoming out. If you want to invest in farmland we give you some advice.

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Where else can all the world’s liquidity go, other than into the stock market? After all, bonds are not attractive. It has to flow into stocks, doesn’t it?

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Several years ago, this publication raised a number of questions concerning the validity of the then trendy concept of the “financial department store”. Today, some of these grand synergies seem to be coming apart. Did it all ever make much sense? And where have all the real stockbrokers gone?

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Money: The Report Card of Life…An Interesting New Market Index from Frank Russell and Company…Fearless Forecast - And You Thought We Were Kiddin’

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A raging stock market, two Interim Memos in a single month, the Major Trend Index jumping up and down like a short-term trading tool, January was quite a month around here.

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You all have experienced the frustrations of investment committee meetings. Read how Rosenberg Capital Management approaches group decision making. It Ain't Like the Good Old Days... U.S. dominance in the worldwide economic scene has greatly diminished. Aussie update: buy bonds and see the movie.

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Fiscal Responsibility Coming in August (An update on performance, not the real thing)..…Programs & Portfolio Insurance:  The new hot product in pension circles. Will the implementation of these programs have an impact on the stock market? We think it could.

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The rank and file in unions are becoming increasingly restless and dissatisfied with national union leadership. This could lead to more strikes, maverick unions, increased militancy, along with a decline in overall union membership. Some clues to the future may be found in the Hormel labor-management conflict in Austin, Minnesota.

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The Case for Australian Government Bonds: On a relative basis, these bonds look better to us today than in August of 1985. The Real Estate Game: The real estate glut has now spread across almost all of the nation. Still, a number of pension funds and insurance companies continue to put up more buildings. Does this really make investment sense?

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Some of you liked this last month so we will do it again, but I will answer no more questions concerning Evel Knutson.

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Like any insurance, there is a premium, but this insurance can be taken out for only a limited period, only when the storm warnings are flying. This section attempts to provide a simple explanation as to what this index put insurance stuff is all about.

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The Major Trend Index is still positive but giving ground rapidly, and our Early Warning work still indicates a 7%-10% correction should begin soon. Perhaps after an early October rally. Longer-term we remain convinced by a still positive trend. Short to intermediate term we continue cautious and defensive.

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After years of historical research and endless plotting of productivity trends, our constant vigilance and ceaseless monitoring of vital economic and industrial currents has revealed an amazing correlation. Herein Mr. Leuthold offers his sage wisdom and several solutions to domestic sagging productivity.

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