Bull Market

No doubt, “relief” was the primary component in April’s performance formula. Wall Street can now redirect the focus back to issues of domestic consequence….things like earnings, valuations, and economic growth.

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Still bullish on stock market, expecting cyclical bull market to extend into 2004. Very worried that any easing of tensions in Iraq or Venezuela will bring crude prices down hard and fast.

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Is this a bear market? It certainly is a bear market in integrity! Steve presents the case for both Bears and Bulls.

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Economic double dip is unlikely, but there is something wrong with U.S. stock market. Stymied and perhaps derailed by 2002’s “Bear Market In Integrity?"

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Last month’s caution proved to be unwarranted. Would now be described as a bull with reservations. Steve's outline of his bullish case including predictions from “the managing director’s crystal ball”.

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Some may disagree, but a number of classic bull market transition elements are in place. Also, falling Earnings are not reason to stay away from the stock market. Superior performance comes in the years earnings are falling the most.

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Kate Welling shares her insight on the recent market action. Also, the 2000 NASDAQ Market...The magnitude and short duration of both the Spring decline and the last few days’  20%+ rally, are a direct reflection of the sad state of liquidity in the NASDAQ market.

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Once again, the stock market has soared to another year of strong performance. Returns of 20%-30% are becoming the norm.

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October drama…Interest rates and stocks may be uncoupling…Is it too soon to see a bear market?...What could break the back of the Bull?

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Here at The Leuthold Group, we are starting to focus on how we are going to structure our equity portfolio for the next bull market.

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The caution flags were taken down in January. This is one of the most powerful looking markets I have seen in my 24 years in the business.

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We think the cyclical bull market is still on track even though our Major Trend Index did drift down into Neutral territory in the last two weeks of December. An Interim Update concerning this will be sent out January 9 when the first calculation of the new year is made. We suspect the Index has moved back up into Positive territory this first week of 1984.

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While it certainly does not appear the big bull market in bonds is over, it would not be surprising to see an additional five to eight-point correction from current levels.

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