Bull Market

Does a bigger Bear market equate to a bigger Bull market recovery?

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Whether it’s the start of a new bond bear market or not, there’s no need to rush... and why shorting bonds may not be the best idea, even during a bond bear market.

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It’s April once again… Are we due for yet another market top? Some perspectives on the possibility of attaining a new all-time market high in the current cyclical bull, and what may drive the upside.

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Doug Ramsey provides an analysis of non-recession related bear markets. Historically, non-recession related markets are shorter in duration than recession induced bear markets, but the decline is essentially the same magnitude.

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Several U.S. indexes and world stock markets have already lost 20% or more from recent peaks, satisfying the parameter for a bear market.

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The 30-point collapse in the S&P 500 on Tuesday, August 2nd completed a bearish H&S pattern that has been several months in the making.

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Don’t expect a summer swoon, but stocks may make little progress until fall. Most of our bull market targets discussed in 2009—early 2010 have been achieved with the exception of a return to median bull market peaks based on normalized earnings (only 1.5% away).

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VLT has turned up for most market indices. Even though it is still above the zero line, history shows that this signals an extension of the bull market.

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Steps are falling into place for the U.S. market to climb another 15-20% into 2012.

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Doug Ramsey highlights the “point of recognition” in this month’s “Inside The Stock Market” section. This is the point of maximum market upthrust, the point at which even hardened pessimists become convinced that the economic recovery and bull market are for real.

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2010 was better than it felt for the equity markets, but while 2011 may be better for the economy, it might not be as strong for the equity markets. Could the bull market be running out of milestones?

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Low quality stocks led out of the past bear market, as typically occurs. Despite being the clear winners from the 2009 lows, it looks like the lower quality stocks can continue to outperform given current valuations and momentum.

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Now that the election is over and QE2 in the works, resist the temptation to “sell the news.” We expect to see the market rally through the end of the year. Sentiment still benign and valuations still attractive.

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Major Trend Index now Positive (both global and domestic). Even though we are bullish, there are several bullish arguments that we still don’t buy.

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Global bull market is now one year old. U.S. stocks are probably in fair value territory, but should move to moderately overvalued territory as both the economy and investor sentiment improve.

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Climbing the bull market stairs. Our initial upside price target for the S&P 500 is 1300 to 1350. This is based on normalized P/E ratios moving to prior bull market average peak levels, as well as on past market peaks.

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Secular versus Cyclical markets. It shouldn’t really matter. Investors can lose a lot waiting to be right. The Key is to focus on the cyclical movements within a secular bull or bear market.

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Following a strong September, October may be a little weaker. However, readers should use any October scare to buy equities in anticipation of strong end to 2009.

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Doug Ramsey demonstrates that new bull markets can be expected to correct by 10% or more at some point — which may be why so many pundants are looking for a correction now. Past history shows that based on duration it would be early in the current bull market for a correction at this time, but based on  magnitude, the timing would be about right.

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Lots of people spinning economic and market statistics to cast doubt on the recovery and stock market rally. Doug Ramsey goes point by point to make an honest assessment about the current conditions. Things do actually look pretty good right now!

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