Articles by Greg Swenson Director of Equities
Core & Global Asset Allocation Portfolios
Major Trend Index Positive: Equity Exposure At 63%
Highlighted Attractive Groups
We examine the factor category strength behind Auto Parts & Equipment, Household Durables, and Paper Packaging. Each of these groups has rated Attractive or High Neutral for two consecutive months.
September Factor Performance
Value, Growth, and Profitability were all negative, while Momentum turned around its recent negative performance streak.
Highlighted Attractive Groups
We examine the factor category strength behind Apparel Retail, Life Sciences Tools & Services, and Technology Hardware Storage & Peripherals.
Rough 2016 For Momentum
After performing well since the 2009 meltdown, Momentum is having its first noticeably poor year. The magnitude of the underperformance is in line with other past years of poor performance. Materials and Energy have been the main drivers.
Highlighted Attractive Groups
We examine the factor category strength behind Food Retail & Distributors, Homebuilding, and Water Utilities.
July Factor Performance
Value was the only factor category that worked during July. Being the one factor that currently offers rising interest rate exposure, Value has performed inversely to every other category for most of 2016.
Highlighted Attractive Groups
We examine the factor category strength behind Commodity Chemicals, Hypermarkets & Super Centers, and Semiconductor Equipment.
June And First Half Factor Performance and The Brexit Impact
Factor performance was muted prior to the vote; it turned volatile in the remaining days of June following. Momentum was the only factor to work before and after June 23rd — the day of the Brexit vote.
All Or Nothing Performance Continues
In a reversal of factor performance, Value underperformed while everything else worked well.
Highlighted Attractive Groups
Materials leapt five spots to #3 in our broad sector rankings. Industrials remains the highest rated sector.
Highlighted Attractive Groups
Air Freight & Logistics, Commercial Services, and Electronic Manufacturing Services caught our eye this month.
Factors Continue To Underperform
Similar to March, Value was the only factor to perform well in April. Profitability, Momentum, and Volatility all had spreads worse than –5%.
Factor Performance Reverses
With the exception of Value, March was a bad month for quantitative factor performance. Every other factor category we follow underperformed, with Momentum posting its second consecutive –5% spread.
Highlighted Attractive Groups
Food Retail & Distributors, Leisure Products, and Trading Companies & Distributors caught our eye this month.
Momentum Trouble
Momentum reversed in February, primarily due to rallying Materials stocks. Value and Profitability both performed well.
Our Most Contrarian Group Ideas
We use our Group Selection (GS) Scores to identify the potential for a catalyst, and to gauge the health and future performance potential of those groups out of favor by analysts.
Highlighted Attractive Groups
Highlighting Automotive Retail, Education Services and Insurance Brokers.
February GS Score Highlights
The Attractive quintile of the GS Scores became more defensive in nature; the six groups that were downgraded all sported a cyclical business model. The SI portfolio’s Homebuilding group was deactivated after its GS Score strength deteriorated fairly quickly during its disappointingly short tenure.
Homebuilding Group Downgraded And Sold
What initially looked promising fell apart fairly quickly
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