AI’s Profit Pushmi-Pulyu
Capital spending booms are often remembered as periods of IT transformation and optimism. Firms race to expand productive capacity, ushering in a new era of efficiency and growth. The current AI wave fits that description, but there is one underappreciated aspect of the frenzy: The asymmetric impact the capex surge will have on corporate profits today, versus several years from now.
These tables identify and compare important characteristics of the broad sectors of the S&P 500, along with the S&P Mid Cap and Small Cap indices.
Read more20 Year T-Bond: 5 3/8’s, Maturity: 2/15/2031, YTM 2.88% (vs. April 30th YTM at 2.39%)
Read moreHigh yield bonds are not immune to the tapering of QE.
Read moreInflows into Muni bond funds turned negative; higher interest rates currently the biggest risk.
Read moreConsistent with our overall cautious view on credits, we still like “safe spreads”.
Read moreThe RAI rose in May and stays on a “High Risk” signal. We remain cautious and recommend higher quality within fixed income.
Read moreApril inflation numbers were generally lower than expected. We are shifting out our inflation outlook by six months. We believe inflation will be a non-factor for the next six months but will increase moderately in the following six months.
Read moreThe global yield curve is in a sideways range bound pattern, indicating anemic demand for credit. An examination of developed and emerging countries confirms our “muddle through” view.
Read moreWe think the 10-year yield will likely consolidate around 200-215 before taking a shot at 245. The 245 level looks like a strong barrier and will likely hold in the foreseeable future.
Read moreProperty & Casualty Insurance, Life & Health Insurance, Restaurants, and Apparel, Accessories & Textiles all moved into the top quintile.
Read moreQ1 earnings reports look weak at a reading of 1.38, the lowest one-month reading since Q4 2009.
Read moreConsumer Staples are top-ranked in the domestic model but appear particularly Unattractive in the global model, which continues to be dominated by the Financials.
Read moreWe weren’t prepared to find industry price trend persistence so much more predominant at the global level than it was domestically.
Read moreEach of these effects has diminished in importance over time, but it’s still worth taking a look. Momentum is best at capturing the Industry effect, while Valuation works best at the Country level.
Read moreWhile U.S. stocks have surged this year, Emerging Markets have languished. What is going on in Emerging Markets to cause this unusual situation?
Read moreThe Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index has worked in eight of the last nine decades. The credit information in corporate bond prices provides valuable input for investors.
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