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May 06 2026

AI’s Profit Pushmi-Pulyu

  • May 6, 2026

Capital spending booms are often remembered as periods of IT transformation and optimism. Firms race to expand productive capacity, ushering in a new era of efficiency and growth. The current AI wave fits that description, but there is one underappreciated aspect of the frenzy: The asymmetric impact the capex surge will have on corporate profits today, versus several years from now.

These tables identify and compare important characteristics of the broad sectors of the S&P 500, along with the S&P Mid Cap and Small Cap indices.

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The Equal Weighted index also outperforming YTD.

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20 Year T-Bond: 5 3/8’s, Maturity: 2/15/2031, YTM 2.88% (vs. April 30th YTM at 2.39%)

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High yield bonds are not immune to the tapering of QE.

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Inflows into Muni bond funds turned negative; higher interest rates currently the biggest risk.

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Consistent with our overall cautious view on credits, we still like “safe spreads”.

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The RAI rose in May and stays on a “High Risk” signal. We remain cautious and recommend higher quality within fixed income.

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April inflation numbers were generally lower than expected. We are shifting out our inflation outlook by six months. We believe inflation will be a non-factor for the next six months but will increase moderately in the following six months.

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The global yield curve is in a sideways range bound pattern, indicating anemic demand for credit. An examination of developed and emerging countries confirms our “muddle through” view.

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We think the 10-year yield will likely consolidate around 200-215 before taking a shot at 245. The 245 level looks like a strong barrier and will likely hold in the foreseeable future.

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Property & Casualty Insurance, Life & Health Insurance, Restaurants, and Apparel, Accessories & Textiles all moved into the top quintile.

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Info Tech remains the largest sector short position, while Energy is second.

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Q1 earnings reports look weak at a reading of 1.38, the lowest one-month reading since Q4 2009.

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Consumer Staples are top-ranked in the domestic model but appear particularly Unattractive in the global model, which continues to be dominated by the Financials.

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We weren’t prepared to find industry price trend persistence so much more predominant at the global level than it was domestically.

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Each of these effects has diminished in importance over time, but it’s still worth taking a look. Momentum is best at capturing the Industry effect, while Valuation works best at the Country level.

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While U.S. stocks have surged this year, Emerging Markets have languished. What is going on in Emerging  Markets to cause this unusual situation?

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The Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index has worked in eight of the last nine decades. The credit information in corporate bond prices provides valuable input for investors.

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