Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Fearless Forecasts...1989
Each year, along about this time, this publication (with help from our readers) makes a series of “Fearless Forecasts” - frivolous flights of foolishness and fantasy.
View from the North Country
Our Budget Deficit Fears Have Increased…Update on New Zealand Stock Market...Another Aussie Bond Opportunity?
Almost No Change: Still Bullish
Did February mark the beginning of a 7%-10% intermediate stock market correction? I don’t think so. The market gave up some ground last month, but not much and it caused very little deterioration in our indicators.
View from the North Country
The Investment Case for New Zealand Special Study...BenchMarks Is (Finally) Coming...Social Security or Insecurity...Golden Fleece Awards...Copper Traders Anonymous
All Our Systems Are Still “Go”
After a 300-point move in the DJIA in a little over two months, a number of observers view the market as “overbought”. However, we see no significant evidence among our indicators that supports this opinion.
All Our Systems Are Still "Go"
A month ago this section lead off with the headline "All Systems Are Go".
S&P 500: Unweighted!
Since year end, several clients have called to inquire about the 1988 performance of the S&P 500 with each component stock given equal weight.
View From The North Country
Another New Year has arrived.
"Playing The Bounce" Update
For a number of years, we have used Jim Floyd's computer screen to isolate stocks most likely to score the largest gains from early December through the end of January.
All Systems Are “Go”
As indicated in our November 29th Interim Memo, our Early Warning Index, which is designed to detect intermediate stock market bottoms, turned positive as of the November 28th calculation. I expect a significant rally in December.
View from the North Country
Holiday Wishes...New Quarterly Publication BenchMarks Will Be Introduced and Sent at No Extra Cost to All Clients... Client Questions Answered
View from the North Country
LBO Mania and Ramifications...Dr. Ravi Batra’s Sequel “Surviving the Great Depression of 1990”...Leuthold Commodity Speculation Experiences
Did You Catch an LBO Target?
Even considering the LBO mania and the market’s contracting breadth, I still think the stock market is basically healthy. While a 5%-10% post-election correction is now expected, our Major Trend Index remains comfortably in positive territory.
Comparing Common Stock Cash Flow Yields to Bond Yields: The Ratio
Comparing cash flow yields with bond yields we find that stocks are not significantly overvalued compared to bonds. Stocks are not yet comparatively cheap, but they come out much better in this stock/bond comparison than in the dividend yield/bond yield comparisons or in the earnings yield/bond yield comparisons.
Investor Psychology Measured by P/E Momentum
In 1988, corporate profits have been surging ahead, but the stock market has paid little heed. Investor psychology is still negative. Good earnings reports are greeted with a sell off more often than a rally.
Comparing Common Stock Cash Flow Yields to Bond Yields
We thought last month might be the end of this bond/stock comparative series. However, a recent note from a client has prompted us to undertake an additional study comparing common stock cash flow yields with bond yields.
View from the North Country
New Dow Jones Industry Groups Unveiled...Another View of Gold, In Dollars and In Francs
Bullish Conviction Increases
From mid-July through mid-September, the status of our Major Trend Index has been cause for some concern. However, during the last two weeks this work has improved significantly.
View from the North Country
Special Situations Stock Update...The Social Security Confusion…Another Panacea, the Aging of the Baby Boomers…Evel Knutson, the Daredevil Norwegian Trader, Moves on to New Horizons and is Replaced by “The Amazing Lefty”
Major Trend Index Neutral, But Rally Expected
A significant intermediate term stock market rally may soon be getting underway. As of our August 29th calculation, the Early Warning Index of intermediate bottoms gave a Buy signal. The response of our Major Trend Index in this expected rally is now critical.
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March 2026 Issue
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March 2026 Issue
