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Jul 08 2025
Estimating the Downside

Estimating the Downside - July 2025

  • Jul 8, 2025

The S&P 500 continued its surge following the tariff scare—up 25% from the close on April 8th through the end of June. Based on history from 1957 to date, the index’s potential downside to median levels has deepened to -43% (vs. -41% as of May 31st). 

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About The Author

Phil Segner / Sr. Research Analyst & Co-Portfolio Manager

Phil Segner Sr. Research Analyst & Co-Portfolio Manager

Phil is a Co-Portfolio Manager and Sr. Research Analyst at The Leuthold Group, LLC. He is a member of the asset allocation and investment committees and is a major contributor to the firm's research publications.

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