Yield

Economy  may already be halfway or more through recession. GDP growth still barely positive, but revisions could change that. Tech bust magnitude and breadth of Q2 profit plunge spell recession.

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GDP growth still barely positive, but trend has been sharply lower. May already be halfway through a recession. Tech bust and Q2 profit decline additionally support this view.

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Economy may already be halfway through a recession, but expect economic uptick by early 2002. Fed near end of easing.

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Expect Q2 and Q3 GDP to weaken due to business cost cutting, lagging global economy and less robust consumer spending. But, tax rebate, the Fed, and money supply growth should spawn new economic expansion by early 2002.

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Overall inflationary pressures subsiding, but expect a few more energy related flare ups.

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Dividends do matter, especially as an important component of total return. Also, a recent study published in the Financial Analyst Journal tries to get at the root of large cap, growth stock dominance in the 1990s.

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Rising stocks and better economic news could increase chance of third Fed boost near term.

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Two recent bump-up’s in rates by Fed may not be enough.

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Big Rise in Treasury yields has resulted in improved risk/reward profile for T-bonds.

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Testing indicates that there is really only minimal stock market analytical value to the concept of “real” dividend yields. It is of very limited use in identifying overvalued markets on a short term basis. Longer term, we found no stock market analytical value here.

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Our studies suggest we still have some further regression before returning to median returns. Looking out to a 3-5 year horizon, we expect equity returns to lag historical averages as returns regress further toward normal long term (10 year) performance.

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Last issue, this publication focused on the current institutional fixation on earnings momentum and earnings surprise in terms of stock selection and stock retention. Ultimately this investment strategy will be over exploited, but when?

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All things considered, I think November's long bond market performed surprisingly well.

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This is the third in a series of studies presenting historical relationships between stock market valuations and bond yields. In this issue, we examine the historical relationship of the bond yield and common stock earnings yield in terms of a ratio.

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This is the first of our studies presenting historical relationships between stock market valuations and bond yields. Herein we compare bond yields to common stock dividend yields in terms of a ratio.

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