Wages

CPI and PPI declined more than expected in December due to impact of lower energy prices.

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Steve Leuthold’s commentary on how he would structure a defensive portfolio.

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Continued U.S. dollar weakness could certainly be an inflation negative, but we are getting more optimistic about the dollar.

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Higher oil prices and higher food prices pushed recent CPI and PPI higher. Next month’s readings will likely show less inflation with oil prices coming down some recently.

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Per Ray DeVoe, pay increases for the service sector workers are running at a 7%-8% annual rate of increase, compare this to the BLS calculation of +3.5% for this same sector. Steve and Sharon ride the rails through the Scotland highlands.

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Workers’ stock market purchasing power at all time low. Also, a book out of the past, has an eerie ring to it.

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Despite proclamation of a “neutral” bias toward future interest rate shifts, expect the Fed to raise short rates at least 25 basis points more.

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Among the industrial nations, U.S. bond market offers highest yields, a reversal from earlier in the decade...A return to “normalcy” implies falling US bond yields.

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Bond risk still considered well below potential equity market risk...longer term, bond potential returns at least equal to potential equity returns.

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How long can the Goldilocks’ economy keep going? The current economic expansion (at 25 quarters) is long in the tooth by historical standards. Inflation outlook improved. Shortage of treasury bonds to become a reality?

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The balanced budget: politicians had to move fast because the budget looked as if it might balance itself without their help. Wage Inflation: our belief that it has been accelerating has been wrong, particularly in Q2.

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Current government wage inflation statistics don’t jibe with today’s real world. Future releases will show a significant jump.

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Economic expansion long in the tooth...Fed working to slow down the economy...Inflation cool...U.S. rates very competitive with foreign yields...strong dollar should continue to stimulate foreign bond buying.

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Bond rally should be rekindled by mid-year. U.S. yields remain relatively high compared to foreign yields. Bonds expected to outperform stocks over next 6-12 months.

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Bonds expected to outperform stocks over next 6-12 months...economy should slow, inflation should remain under control, and corporate earnings momentum should gradually fade.

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Bond market decline slowed in May. But positive economy news, potential Fed tightening (not likely near-term), and labor inflation still disturb bond market investors.

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The Economic Surprise And Inflation, The Feds Overheating Economy And Inflation Fears Are Justified and “Contract With America”: The Danger Is Big Tax Cuts But Minimal Spending Cuts

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Economic growth and stock market performance don’t go hand in hand - the stock market looks ahead. Don’t be surprised by more wage irrflation. The AdvantHedge short selling program is updated and explained because readers have expressed a growing interest (maybe it’s the market).

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A month ago, this section featured the commentary "Bad News For The PBGC (And The Taxpayer)". This proved to be quite timely.

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The Ross Perot Factor...A New Hero Streaks Across The Political Heavens... Let’s Screw the Kids (Government Generosity for the Elderly)...U. S. Cheap Labor?

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