Treasuries
Economic Outlook
It may be difficult for the economy to prolong its expansion, with the auto and housing sectors weakening and consumer spending being a big question mark.
Economic Outlook
The current economic expansion is considered late stage.
Economic Outlook
Still view long rates as potentially vulnerable to strong economy and unexpected inflation.
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market based on rising inflation and further Fed tightening.
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market. Boosting bond market target yields based on rising inflation and further Fed tightening.
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market. CPI inflation could continue to surprise on the upside; the economy never did hit a soft patch; and Fed may still make several more rate hikes.
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market. From today’s low interest rate levels, there is not much upside, but downside is significant!
Economic Outlook
Still bearish on the bond market. May deficit report encouraging.
Economic Outlook
The current economic expansion will reach four years on 9/30/2005. Since WWII, the average expansion has lasted 57 months.
Economic Outlook
Today, the yield curve has flattened but has not yet inverted. The economy may be in for a soft patch, but there are no signs of recession yet.
Economic Outlook
The U.S. deficit was not a bond market negative in 2004, but continuing long term deficits will become a negative.
Economic Outlook
The current economic expansion reached three years at the end of 2004. Since WWII, the average expansion has lasted 57 months.
Economic Outlook
The current economic expansion reached three years at the end of 2004. Recession could possibly be getting underway by end of 2005.
Economic Outlook
Lower than expected 2004 budget deficit was a short term bond market positive, but longer term deficits are a negative.
Economic Outlook
Deficit narrowing. Last three months’ (including first month of fiscal 2005) receipts remarkably strong, while outlays have declined.
Economic Outlook
Everyday consumers must find it difficult to believe twelve month inflation is just 2.5% (CPI-U), especially when filling up their gas tanks and their grocery carts.
Economic Outlook
Bond yields have declined 40-55 basis points in the past three months.
Economic Outlook
Falling interest rates and declining oil prices should bolster consumer spending and hopefully get us past the current economic soft spot.
Economic Outlook
GDP growth of 4.0% projected for 2004. Improved 2004 budget deficit projections a short term positive for bonds but eventually could be a negative.
Economic Outlook
GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($458 billion in 2004?) is a significant problem for bonds.
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