Supply Demand
October Mutual Fund Flows: Amazing How Main Street Keeps Buying
Supply/Demand wildly bullish—wo why isn’t the market going up? A look beyond the supply/demand dynamics factors.
September Mutual Fund Flows: Main Street Investors Staying The Course
· It really is incredible that equity fund inflows have held up so well this year. Also, Supply Factors: Heavy cash acquisition activity is bullish for stocks, since it reduces the overall equity supply available to investors.
August Mutual Fund Flows: Main Street Investors Staying The Course
The YTD $194 billion net inflow through the end of August is now 67% more than 1999’s $116 billion net inflow over the same YTD period, and has already matched the annual record (1997’s $194 billion). Supply/Demand: Offerings volume was very heavy during the first half of August, but began to dry up in the second half of the month.
July Mutual Fund Flows: Main Street Investors Remain Mostly Unfazed By Market Declines
One thing can be said about the equity fund money flow this year: it just keeps rolling in.
Supply Factors
YTD offerings of $120 billion have been overtaken by $142 billion in YTD cash acquisitions.
Net New Equity Supply
YTD offerings of $107 billion have been overtaken by $108 billion in YTD cash acquisitions. This produces net equity shrink of $1 billion so far this year.
Net New Equity Supply
A net increase of $30 billion in new supply this year. Quite a reversal from 1999 where YTD $39 billion of new offerings was almost 50% less than cash acquisitions.
View From The North Country
Transcript from late February conference call with Steve Leuthold and Byron Wien covering a wide spectrum of timely investment topics.
Major Stock Market Positives and Negatives
Steve’s personal judgements and opinions incorporating observations, experience and gut feelings, going beyond the quantitative aspects of the Major Trend Index disciplines.
Major Trend Back to Negative
Major Trend back to Negative...Both Asset Allocation Portfolios shifted to their most defensive posture ever. Steve's judgements and opinions on major stock market positives and negatives.
Should We Believe It This Time?
On June 22, clients received an Interim Memo noting that our composite Major Trend Index had slipped to Negative status. The subsequent calculation lost a few more points and remains marginally negative.
A Look In The Rearview Mirror
Thanks to the quantitative disciplines (Sector Selection Scores), sector calls and shifts in equity portfolios were mostly on the mark in 1996...except for bad late 1995-1996 Playing The Bounce episode.
How Significant Are Buybacks?...A Summary
While stock is being repurchased through the front door, additional shares are going out the back door for stock options, incentive compensation, and acquisitions.
A Major Market Top in the Making
Since turning negative on July 2, the Major Trend Index has deteriorated very rapidly. Major stock market top now seems to be developing. There are now five stock market positives and seven negatives.
What Has Changed Since February 2, 1996?
Comparison between February 2, 1996 Major Trend (when we last went positive) and today’s calculation shows the shift primarily driven by Economic/Monetary/Inflation (higher interest rates), and by the Supply/Demand category.
Major Stock Market Positives and Negatives
A review of the significant stock market positives and negatives as I currently see them. There are now five major positives and five major negatives.
Leuthold Investment Strategy
With MTI turning positive, total equity exposure was increased to over 50% (now 58%) using index options to minimize and reduce risk...“new valuation era” continues...demand for U.S. equity funds continues to be key driver.
Leuthold Major Trend Index: Revisions Are Overdue
Major Trend Index modification will be made this week...weights of two mutual fund inflow components will be doubled due to their significance.
Major Stock Market Positives and Negatives
During the month of January, two major stock market positive factors became more positive, three remained about the same, and one became less positive. Among the four negative factors, all four became more negative.
Supply/Demand Considerations
Record demand meets record supply. September could be a crucial month.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
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