Select Industries

The GS Scores help Leuthold Select Industries portfolio identify underappreciated themes that can turn into multi-year holdings. Managed Health Care has been a holding for over 13 years, while Semiconductor Equipment (seven years), and Homebuilding (six years) have also been long-term winning positions.

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While it was a small jump, from #6 to #5 in the sector composite ranks, Financials might be seeing the start of overall improvement. Conversely, Materials and Energy continued to drop in the latest ratings, as fundamental measures deteriorated.

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The portfolio takes a very active approach within sectors, with almost half of its Consumer Discretionary weight allocated to Homebuilding, while completely avoiding Chemicals within the overweight Materials sector. 

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The Group Selection Scores have performed well in the first half of 2023, not an easy feat considering the abrupt style reversal that took place in January. Value and technical indicators are struggling, but the rest of the model is more than picking up the slack.

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Exposure to commodities (and defense) has fallen rapidly within Select Industries. The primary beneficiaries of that reduction are growth-oriented groups.

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As an all-cap strategy, Select Industries is currently targeting larger market-cap themes via our “Big” groups from Info Tech, Communication Services, and Health Care.

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A combination of strength from Information Technology with weakness from Energy resulted in the two swapping places in our sector ranks this month. 

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Select Industries has overweight positions in Energy, Materials, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials. The portfolio has no exposure to Consumer Staples, Real Estate, or Utilities.

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Advertising has been in the top rankings of our Group Selection (GS) model for several months.

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Amidst the Energy carnage, the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing group is the exception, having returned over 7% YTD. Refiners are able to perform well in a variety of oil price scenarios—and tend to thrive in a falling crude oil price environment.

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While this Consumer Discretionary group has not experienced six-plus-years of market outperformance, we think it may be poised for a late-game bounce. An overall lack of housing options may be just what this industry needs to give it a long-awaited boost.

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The last time this group held an Attractive rating for an extended period of time was 2000. Based on the group’s extended underperformance, induced by repercussions of the global financial crisis, we think it may finally be poised for a turnaround. 

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A new position in Drug Retail was added to the Select Industries Portfolio in April. The latest update to the Group Selection (GS) Score showed improvement in several factor categories which pushed the overall score back to Attractive.

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Reinsurance has rated Attractive for a little over one year, but the latest round of GS Scores sent this group’s score skyrocketing, and it now ranks fourth highest among all 115 industry groups. Select Industries Portfolio overall insurance industry group exposure now 8.1%.

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Select Industries purchased Drug Retail, Reinsurance; Global Industries added to Homebuilding, Electronic Equipment

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Both portfolios outperformed their respective benchmarks for the month and YTD.

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Last year was a solid one for the Group Selection (GS) Score approach, with the Attractive list delivering a total return of +13.1%—more than 500 basis points above The Leuthold Group Universe average, which gained only +7.9%.

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Select Industries gross composite gained 3.8% in November and is now up 16.7% YTD.

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Select Industries slightly increased Department Stores & Health Care Facilities; Global Industries purchased Real Estate Management & Development and Road & Rail.

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Select Industries bought Department Stores & Health Care Facilities; Global Industries Purchased Gas Utilities & Integrated Oil & Gas.

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