Sales

Earnings Almanac is a new research product where we dive into quarterly reporting for the S&P 500. The report is released the first week of the last two months of the calendar quarter.

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The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 brought a sudden halt to social gatherings, crowd events, and even personal contacts. Experiential business models were hardest hit by forced closures and lockdowns; cruise ships were forbidden to sail, restaurants and theme parks were closed, and air travel and hotel occupancy dwindled, all in an attempt to minimize personal interactions. The stocks of leisure services companies took a beating in March 2020, with Chart 1 documenting the virus’ impact on 34 large and midcap stocks representing this theme.

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A strong argument can be made that experiential consumer services was the economic sector hardest hit by the pandemic lockdown. Cruise ships were forbidden to sail, restaurants and theme parks were closed, and air travel and hotel occupancy dwindled—all in an attempt to minimize personal/public interaction. The stocks of experiential companies took a beating in March 2020.

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Within EM, more robust growth is being exhibited by: 1) firms in Emerging Europe; 2) companies in Energy, Materials, and Financials; and, 3) larger cap companies.

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Companies are returning cash to investors at a level never before seen. Counting dividend payouts and outstanding share repurchases, the amount of cash returned back to investors crossed the $1 trillion mark for the first time in January 2016 (based on trailing twelve-months’ total for the largest 500 companies, Chart 1).

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Up/Down Earnings: Two Month Reading Slumps To Average

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Up/Down Earnings ratio cools off in August.

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Up/Down Earnings: Q2 Starts Off With A Bang

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With the two factors decoupling, we examine if either one has been adding more value.

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Easy earnings growth days are behind us.

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Up/Down Earnings: Q4 Results Just Below Historical Average. Median Q4 YOY Revenue Comparisons: Strength In Large Caps. Q4 Median Company Earnings Growth: Initial Results Are Impressive

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Up/Down Earnings: Q3 Ends Below Average. Median Q3 YOY Revenue Comparisons: Small And Mid Caps Continue Leading. Q3 Median Company Earnings Growth: Mid Caps Continue Leading

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With all three months of Q2 earnings reports in, the 1.28 ratio is much stronger than Q1, but remains below the 1.51 historical average ratio.

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EPS growth for Large and Mid Cap companies continues exceeding their top-line growth, but Small and Micro Cap companies saw their EPS growth rates coming in below their top-line growth rates.

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Large Cap result this month is the same as last month, but remains stronger than Q1. Smaller firms reversed course, as Mid, Small, and Micro Caps all rebounded with large sales momentum increases.

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Year-over-year EPS growth rate for companies with Q2 reports (with about 65% in) currently stands at +4.2%, while revenue growth has come in at a better than expected +2.6%.

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Q2 relative to Q1 growth rates have improved for larger cap companies but deteriorated for the smaller firms.

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Leuthold’s Eric Weigel dissects earnings, sales and margin expectations for the coming year.

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