Recovery
“Just Another” Summer Correction
After annual summer correction re-run, we believe the market swoon is over, having produced a garden variety correction of -7.2%.
The 1974-1982 Template For Recovery
Current market recovery continues to track the post 1974 bear market recovery quite closely.
The Stampede That Wasn't
A month ago we suspected June might see a big institutional rush into the stock market. The stampede never came, though, and the market finished essentially flat for the month.
Sector Ups and Downs During Bear Markets And Recoveries
Info Tech has demonstrated an ability to lead coming out of bear markets, but still not seeing overall GS Score strength in the sector.
Stock Market Recovery….Typical In Duration, But Maybe Not In Terms Of Performance
Based on post WWII stock market recoveries, the current recovery could have some more upside (12% possibly).
Assessing The Cycle….Putting Today’s Growth Into A Historical Context
Within the current cycle, the stock market recovery is mature, but based on the average post WWII recovery could still have some upside (S&P 500 to 1400?). Currently, earnings growth is well beyond historical averages, but the economic expansion is below the norm.
Third Year Of Bull Market...Now Well Beyond Range Of Typical Bull Market Cycle Peaks
A comparison of the performance of the current stock market recovery to the monthly performance averages of past recoveries (1900 to date).
Third Year Of Bull Market...Assessing The Current Cycle From A Historical Perspective
A comparison of the performance of the current stock market recovery to the monthly performance averages of past recoveries (1900 to date).
Third Year Of Bull Market...Assessing The Current Cycle From A Historical Perspective
A comparison of the performance of the current stock market recovery to the monthly performance averages of past recoveries (1900 to date).
Third Year Of Bull Market...Very Late In Cycle, But Still Potential Upside
Stock market now it is third year. Based on the average performance, this may be getting long in the tooth.
Today's Economic Recovery In Perspective
The current expansion is below the average pace of a typical expansion.
Performance Expectations For Third Year Of Recovery
Based on study of bear market recoveries dating back to 1900, the third year of the recovery is typically not strong. However, this current recovery has lagged the normal recoveries in terms of performance.
Take A Wait And See Attitude For February
February sure came in like a bull, with the S&P 500 already up 1.8% through February 4th, while the NASDAQ has risen 1.1%.
Getting Later In The Game For The Bull Run
Getting late in the game for the bull run. This is no longer a young bull market, but we continue to believe the market can still move higher from here.
Tracking The Market Recovery…..A Mature Bull Market
Current recovery tracking below the performance averages of past bear market recoveries.
Today's Economic Recovery In Perspective
Current economic recovery may appear to be lagging, with a GDP growth rate of +3.6% ACR since Q1 2001, but most recent five expansions averaged +4.2% ACR and the big 1990-2000 expansion grew at only 3.4% per year. Economy is still healthy.
Tracking The Market Recovery…..Bull Market Maturing, But Still Some Upside Potential
Based on the typical recovery, we constructed a series of monthly price targets for the S&P 500, going out 24 months from the October 9, 2002 bear market low, and from the March 11, 2003 secondary low.
The Certainty Of Uncertainty
Uncertainty in Iraq, terrorist threats, rising inflation, and higher interest rates (and Fed tightening) have taken center stage against a backdrop of impressive corporate earnings momentum and economic recovery.
Tracking The Market Recovery…..Still 13%-16% Potential Upside
Although the biggest gains are behind us, based on 1900-to-date, past bull market recoveries, the stock market still has potential upside of 13-16% over next 6-9 months.
Market Mood Swings
Bull market still intact, but investor appetite for risk remains subdued. April’s preference was for defensive and conservative strategies. Old axiom “Sell in May and go away” doesn’t seem to apply during the 130 days leading up to election day.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
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March 2026 Issue
