Presidential Election Cycle

This month’s “Of Special Interest” takes a stab at debunking the “Sell In May And Go Away” anomaly. Instead, we have come to respect this annual strategy.

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Doug Ramsey looks at his own 15 month election cycle work to examine historical performance for a variety of different asset classes.

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Presidential election-year performance vs. non-Presidential election-year performance…. Searching for an intersection that doesn’t exist!

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An analysis comparing S&P 500 performance for the current election year to the performance averages of all election cycles since 1944.

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The average gain for the entire 12 month period spanning the pre- and post-election periods is not much different from the average gain in the comparable 12 month period for all years including non-election years.

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Over the past several months, we have been comparing S&P 500 performance for the current election year to the performance averages of all election cycles since 1944.

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Over the past several months, we have been comparing S&P 500 performance for the current election year to the performance averages of all election cycles since 1944.

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It now seems that the market has settled into a comfort zone— or put differently— a trading range that reflects investors’ current lack of conviction about prospects for the second half of the year.

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This month, at the request of a client, we examined stock market performance volatility in the periods leading up to past Presidential elections.

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Bull market still intact, but investor appetite for risk remains subdued. April’s preference was for defensive and conservative strategies. Old axiom “Sell in May and go away” doesn’t seem to apply during the 130 days leading up to election day.

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It seems that once all of Wall Street becomes aware of an indicator or historic market pattern, the damn things no longer seem to work. Is this now true of the Presidential election cycle? Well, don’t give up on this yet. According to Arthur Merrill’s research, the market so far in 1984 has been acting just like it is supposed to. The fireworks come in the last two quarters of the year.

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