Prediction

When we entered the business in 1990, our grandmother mailed us a decades-old clipping from a Minneapolis newspaper featuring a columnist’s cryptic take on a hand-rendered chart. He coyly claimed to have found it in “an old desk”—and it wasn’t until the internet age that we’d learn of its unattributed source.

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Numerologists will be disappointed to learn that longer-term time cycles don’t line up for a prosperous 2022 for stocks. However, the historical “hit rates” aren’t high enough to justify running for cover if you have no other fundamental stock-market worries. 

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Published 60 years ago in a newspaper gossip column, this diagram forecasted a major market high in 1972 and a panic low in 1982.

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For those who remain skeptical that more stock market troubles lay ahead, we’ve supplemented the MTI and our other market tools with something truly authoritative: Evidence from a gossip column in a 1958 issue The Minneapolis Star!

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Gains will likely be modest, and secondary stocks could finish the year flat-to-down. The year will likely be marred by a moderate to severe mid-year correction, and Small Caps could easily suffer a 20% hit during that swoon.

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From the stock market to politics to football, Doug Ramsey offers up ten predictions and thoughts for the New Year…. Even though we’ve already had a one month “peek” at 2012.

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Year-ahead stock market forecasts are now in hot demand, but of course are notoriously off the mark most years. Very long term forecasts (say, out to the end of the decade) are in virtually no demand, but are considerably easier to get close to the mark for those armed with the right tools. 

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Yes, it is thermal pollution time again. It’s the new year when prognosticators and investment pundits produce large volumes of hot air, probably contributing to global warming.

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Steve Leuthold highlights his 2007 Outlook in this month’s “View From The North Country”.

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A look at the January barometer, indicates there is not much evidence that a weak January market portends weak performance in the remainder of the year.

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This annual exercise is a critical examination of our research effort for the year...presenting both the things we did well and also those things we didn’t do so well.

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I cannot recall another time when professional stock market opinion was so universally bullish regarding the coming year.

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What’s in store for 2004? See “View From The North Country” for Steve Leuthold’s predictions. Targeting mid year stock market peak of 1250 for S&P 500 and 2400 for NASDAQ. Also makes prognostications on Interest Rates, Inflation, the Dollar, Fed Budget Deficit, and more.

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Remain bullish on the stock market, but don’t expect Main Street to be a major stock market factor in 2003. Today’s bull market expectations for the DJIA, S&P, and NASDAQ.

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Thermal pollution time again. Leuthold’s New Year predictions for 2003.

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Leuthold’s New Year Predictions for 2002 and a review of last year’s predictions.

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Thermal pollution time again: Steve’s New Year predictions for the economy and his market outlook, including a look back at last year’s forecasts.

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View is just for the fun of it this month: Fearless Forecasts 2000.

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Thermal pollution time again: Steve’s 2000 predictions for the economy and his market outlook, including a look back at last year’s forecasts.

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Just as many plan sponsors throw in the towel, active managers pull a great quarter out of their collective hat. What's in store for the second half of 1999?

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