NOPE Index

Question: How can you be cautious on the stock market with recent earnings results so spectacular?

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The first several years of this recovery badly underperformed forecasts, with partial blame going to a pair of deflationary shocks (the European debt crisis and oil price collapse).

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The first few trading days of the new year have been a seamless extension of 2017—a low-volatility, “measured” market melt-up.

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November’s report might have been lifted verbatim from the Goldilocks playbook, with the reading very strong but below the 60 level that we’ve statistically shown to be a threshold where “good news becomes bad news” for the stock market.

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While the bond market doesn’t believe it, the past couple of months leave no doubt that the U.S. industrial economy has recovered from the energy-related slump of 2015-2016.

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When it rains, it pours. As if the market’s broad new highs of early June aren’t enough, here’s a pair of sub-models from the MTI’s Economic category that are set to turn bullish.

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Commentators now label this cyclical advance the “seven-year bull market,” but that won’t be semantically true until the S&P 500 closes above its May 2015 peak of 2130.82.

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