Nightmares

One would not expect to generate better than average returns by chasing last year’s big winners. But this simplistic approach did produce better than average results in 1999, as it usually has over the last eleven years.

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With perfect hindsight, one could have produced a gain of almost 70% by investing in 1995’s 25 biggest institutional stock winners.

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Among institutional favorite type stocks, the Dream Individual Stock Portfolio was up 23.6%, while the Nightmare Portfolio was down 20.7%

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In 1993, it surprisingly paid off to stick with last year's big winners and avoid 1992's big losers.

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Much of the January Green Book is devoted to tradition, so too is this section.

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Much of the January Green Book is devoted to tradition, so too is this section. We resumed this tradition two years ago and have found it to be quite interesting. We now annually conduct this exercise each January, examining the previous year's leading and lagging stock market groups.

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Last year, we resumed a tradition started a number of years ago.

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For a number of years we conducted an annual exercise each January, examining the previous year's leading and lagging stock market groups.

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1984's Institutional "dream" portfolio made up of the twenty best performing large cap stock groups was up 20% (excluding dividends) while the aggressive "dream" portfolio was up 33%. The "nightmare" portfolio, constructed of the twenty worst groups was down 49%. See? Things could have been worse…

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Each January we present for the preceding year what would have been, from a group standpoint, the perfect portfolios (Institutional and Aggressive). In 1983 the dream Institutional portfolio was up 56%, the Aggressive up 70%. The worst possible portfolio for 1983 was down 18%. Take a look and see where you should have and shouldn’t have been.

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If your stock group analysis was flawless, a 1982 gain of 85% was possible, even beating Phil Hempleman. If it was hopeless, a loss of 41% was possible. This annual feature had some weird twists this time.

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Does it pay to buy last year’s winners? Not usually. 1981’s best and worst performers reviewed, with an update of what happened to 1980’s best and worst in 1981.

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