Mutual Funds

The market fell in the week ending 11/5 and inflows dried up. Then came the surprise. The market rallied, but fund investors stayed on the sidelines.

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Main Street math, fund managers age and experience and average mutual fund shareholder profits.

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The big volatility week at the end of October didn’t seem to cause much panic among fund buyers (maybe it was good they couldn’t get through on Monday). We are guessing the sustained strong net inflows will bounce back strongly.

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Major Trend Index downshifts to neutral. Big loss in Technical measures due to late October sell off. We are in a critical market period...Have Mr. And Ms. Main-Street become more skittish after experiencing a dose of downside risk?

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After two weeks of net outflows in August, the public returned to the mutual fund trough in September.

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In August, there were two weeks of net outflows from U.S. focus equity funds, the most recent was so small it hardly shows up on the chart.

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For July, our estimate is that $18 billion flowed into U.S. focus equity funds. This would be the largest monthly inflow since January 1997, and far more than last July’s depressed $3.7 billion.

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There has been a declining trend in weekly inflows since early January. The strongest seasonal flows are in the first 3 1/2 months of a year (through April 15). 1997’s strongest inflows may now be history.

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ICI reported April net inflows at $10.6 billion, down considerably from January and February but up from March.

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Mutual fund investors less enthusiastic as they learn stock market is not a one way street. Mutual fund investor speculation monitor remains at low levels.

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Equity Mutual Funds registered $1 billion in net redemptions in latest week. March net inflows down from February but still at strong levels considering weak new supply.

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U.S. focus equity mutual funds’ cash reserves is now almost as high as back in late 1990 and early 1991 (the last major market low).

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Revised January 1997 U.S. equity mutual fund flows of $23.4 billion, setting an all-time record. February’s estimate of $20 billion brings YTD U.S. focus fund flows to $43 billion, well ahead of last year’s record pace.

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It’s “Never Never Land”...stock market now above all past valuation extremes. Ultimately, a big bear market is out there, but shorter term the market may go higher.

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For the month of November, net inflows into U.S. focus funds are estimated at $14.4 billion, up 26% from $11.4 billion in October and above the $13.1 billion of November 1995.

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Lou Harris recent poll indicates mutual fund investors’ expectations are unrealistically high and many would sell if market declines.

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U.S. mutual fund flow less bullish in October (may be seasonal).

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Supply/Demand bullish in September. Mutual fund net inflows increase to an estimated $11 billion in September.

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Assets under management in Japan's mutual fund industry now at 9% of what they were less than 7 years ago.

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Mutual fund net inflows increase to an estimated $14 billion in August.

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