Mid Caps

Cap-weighted valuations for the S&P 500 and S&P Industrials are homing in on the all-time records seen in the first quarter of 2000. We’ll confess that after those valuations collapsed in the years that followed, we thought we’d never see them again in our lifetime—let alone a mere generation later. 

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Mid and Small Cap stocks underperformed in 2018 and 2019. However, after the collapse of February and March, these “SMID” Caps have largely kept pace with the torrid rebound in the blue chips. Today’s valuations are priming the SMIDs for a similar “decoupling” in the years ahead, like that following Y2K.

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A composite measure of Mid Caps and Small Caps are at bottom-decile valuations relative to their 26-year histories. From a shorter-term viewpoint, though, we find it scary that valuations are so low just a single month into the recession.

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As deep as the losses in the DJIA and S&P 500 have been, most professional investors recognize that those averages have masked the extent of the damage suffered by most stocks.

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The underperformance of Mid and Small Caps in the last few years has taken valuations from top-decile readings (and, indeed, a few all-time records) just 25 months ago, down to the middle—and even lower reaches—of their 30-year valuation boundaries.

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After spending two months in discount territory, in March the Ratio of Ratios headed closer to its historical median premium of 4%.

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Small Cap Premium Bounces Back To 23%

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Small Caps are selling at a 20% valuation premium relative to Large Caps (23% last month), using non-normalized trailing operating earnings.

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Small Cap Premium Continues Upward To 23%. Large Caps Lead On The Downside In January

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Small Cap Premium Continues Upward To 21%. The red-hot equity market of 2013 was especially good for Small Caps with a +38.8% total return.

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Small Caps are selling at a 20% valuation premium relative to Large Caps, using non-normalized trailing operating earnings.

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Small Caps are selling at a 16% valuation premium relative to Large Caps, using non-normalized trailing operating earnings. Using estimated operating earnings, Small Caps are selling at a higher valuation premium of 23% (25% last month).

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Large Caps lost 2.9% (total return) in August, just ahead of Small Caps (-3.2%) and Mid Caps (-3.8%). YTD, Small Caps continue to perform ahead of the other two subsets.

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Small Caps are selling at a 15% valuation premium relative to Large Caps, using non-normalized trailing operating earnings. This is the same as the past two months’ readings. Using estimated 2013 operating earnings, Small Caps are selling at a higher valuation premium of 23% (24% last month).

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Large Caps gained 5.1% (total return) in July, lagging Small Caps (+7.0%) and Mid Caps (+6.2%). YTD, Small Caps are now ahead of the other two subsets, and Large Caps are the laggards.

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Small Caps are selling at a 15% valuation premium relative to Large Caps, using non-normalized trailing operating earnings. This is the same as last month’s reading. Using estimated 2013 operating earnings, Small Caps are selling at a higher valuation premium of 24% (25% last month).

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In this note, we discuss our market-level measure of quality, and highlight an expanded methodology for determining the “quality” of a stock and the performance implications associated with such a concept.

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The stock market continued to move higher in May, with small and mid cap stocks outperforming the majority of large cap indices.

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The S&P 400 Mid Cap index had a tough year in 2006. On the other hand, The Leuthold Group’s Mid Cap Index did very well, up 21% in 2006.

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