Leading Economic Indicators
Cashing In On The LEI?
The consensus view is that the stock market will be fine as long as there’s no recession in sight.The same LEI that has displayed a fine GDP forecasting record has shown essentially no relationship with S&P 500 forward twelve-month performance. In fact the regression line shows a slight negative slope!
Market Pressure Points?
Last month we detailed a handful of economic and monetary measures that were approaching critical thresholds from a stock market perspective.
Better To Have And Not Need
"Need To Have” confirming indexes were nearly all perfectly aligned with the latest market high, and a second set of indexes we consider less critical, but “Nice To Have,” has also been in virtual lockstep.
Keep An Eye On The LEI – Leading Indicators Have Topped, But Have Yet To Roll Over
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators has a proven track record of indicating when a recession may be near. Although this index has been trending sideways for quite some time, it has not yet rolled over.
Keep In Front Of The Economic Curve
Stock market is a leading economic indicator, and typically turns down before the economy turns down. On average, 40% of the stock market decline occurs before the recession begins.
A Bumpy Road To Recovery
Market begins to shake off “Enronitis” and as economic positives continue, the next rally could come quickly. And yes, it was a recession.
Market Timing With The Index Of Leading Economic Indicators
Index of Leading Economic Indicators, a good coincident indicator for the stock market. Looks like it’s on the mend.
View From the North Country
Stock market still considered lead economic indicator? Maybe not, considering the last three years, the stock market has been driven by Main Street. Changing role of portfolio managers: risk management function reduced to minimum if it even exists at all.
The Stock Market and the Economy: Lead and Lag Relationships
In past issues, we have postulated that the next major stock market decline would not precede an economic downturn as it typically has in the past. Rather, the relationship would be coincidental, with the stock market and the economy turning down at about the same time.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
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March 2026 Issue
