Insiders

Very little to show for a month of solid market performance. Breaking the market down by capitalization yields some interesting results.

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September was a horrible month for the stock market, but now is not the time to be selling stocks. We believe a market bottom is close at hand, and this month’s “Inside The Stock Market” section presents several of our “big picture”, historical market studies to provide support for this belief.

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Consumer confidence levels have sunk to five year lows. Could this be a bullish omen for the markets?

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The factor measuring “Big Block Insider (Dollar)” transactions is now rated positive.

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We have been taking the opportunity each month to highlight a portion of our groups’ insider buying and selling scores. This month, we are presenting the groups with the best insider scores.

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In prior issues, we have presented those equity groups that had been displaying the best readings in terms of insider selling/buying. Several clients have expressed an interest in seeing those groups with the most significant levels of insider selling. The following table presents the ten groups with the most pervasive insider selling.

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During the last few months, we have been looking at the Insider Selling and Buying among various broad sectors and have also recently been presenting those specific equity industry groups that currently have the best scores based on the insider patterns of selling and buying.

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During the last few months, we have been looking at the Insider Selling and Buying among various broad sectors and last month decided to present those specific equity industry groups that currently have the best scores based on the insider patterns of selling and buying.

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Best looking groups based on current Insider Buying Selling patterns include: Gas Utilities, Aluminum, Brewers and Auto Manufacturers.

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At the market lows, the Tech insiders while not net buyers clearly slowed their aggressive selling.

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An examination of Financial groups with respect to insider selling/buying. At the extremes, this tool (which is employed in our GS Scores) works pretty well.

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A look at the Insider Selling patterns of several Health Care related groups. As with Energy groups, there is some evidence that Insiders’ transactions can be useful in identifying tops and bottoms in specific industry areas.

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Recent selling by corporate Insiders is not as bad as you are being told!

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Answering client questions on the economic recovery, bull market upside, valuations, Main Street and what could go wrong?

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Despite the recent rise in net selling over the past 5 months, we still view recent buy signals in Q4-2002 and Q1-2003 as bullish for the stock market.

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While the recent spike in insider selling has been well documented by the media as an ominous sign for stocks, the YTD level of net selling is down significantly from recent years.

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We view recent buy signals in Q4-2002 and Q1-2003 as a bullish indicator for the stock market. In the past, these “buy” signals have provided a timely indication that stock market performance would improve going forward.

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The decline in insider selling this year is a very encouraging sign for the stock market.

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The latest 10-week reading of 0.27% has risen back into the normal zone after spending six weeks in bullish territory.

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The latest reading is well into bullish territory and is the most positive reading on this indicator since the first quarter of 1995.

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