Industrial Metals

While the Materials sector overall still isn’t looking stellar based on our work, we think with the Metals theme heating up, it’s a trend worth watching. 

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Deactivating Industrial Metals after holding period of almost six years and a 400%+ gain.

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Waiting for the curtain to fall on Industrial Metals, we recap the “three acts” and throw in a time-tested contrarian indicator to boot.

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Steve presents his mid year outlook for “Alternative Investments”

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Even though it is entering its sixth year, the Industrial Metals play is not over. It seems to be entering its third and last act, an act that could run for at least another 18 months.

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Election should be a non-event for stock market. No matter which party gains control of House or Senate, we expect to see two more years of gridlock. Also, still bullish on Industrial Metals and the unusual behavior of U.S. Equity Fund Flows.

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Investors have soured on Industrial Metals equities, likely based on the belief that the prices of the underlying physical metals have stopped going up.

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This month Steve again lays out both the Bull and Bear cases.

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Metals stocks have already had a good strong run, and have been held in our portfolio for four years now. Despite the strong gains there is still significant upside when looking at inflation adjusted prices, and the strong demand/limited supply.

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A look at the things we did well in the past year, the areas where we could improve, and those things that were downright wrong.

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2005 Performance Recap: Equities, Fixed Income, Large Vs. Small Caps, Weighted Vs. Unweighted S&P 500, Industrial Metals and AdvantHedge.

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Industrial Metal equities far outpaced both the S&P 500 (up 3.5%) and our Leuthold Materials Sector Index (up 7.0%).

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The weakness in metal equities this month was, in our opinion, mainly driven by a healthy dose of profit taking.

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The Industrial Metals equity group was up a whopping 11.7% in September versus a 0.7% gain for the S&P 500 and a 4.0% gain for the Leuthold Materials Sector.

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In comparison to crude oil, industrial metals are beginning to look like a real bargain.

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The YTD performance of the Industrial Metals equity group is particularly impressive when you consider that the group was down 13.7% through mid-May.

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Metal equities broke out above their trendline near the end of May, and have continued to rally since.

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We may be nearing a crossroads with our long-term holding in the Industrial Metals equities group.

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The Industrial Metals equities group has been very disappointing over the past three months, especially given May’s rally in the broad equity market.

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The Industrial Metals equity group continued to sell off in April, dropping 10.5% on the heels of –6.1% return in March.

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