High Yield Bonds

“What? You’re buying Junk Bonds?!” Although some may view this as a high-risk, contrarian bet, the logic behind the strategy is explained.

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1998 Inflation Projections: CPI expected to end 1999 about unchanged from year end 1998 levels (year over year change of 0.0%).

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Net inflows into U.S. focus equity funds were somewhat ahead of last year’s pace by the end of January. Estimated net inflows of $18 billion compares to last January’s $16.1 billion.

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At current levels U.S. T-bonds are no longer viewed as attractive. U.S. T-bond potential downside now about matches upside potential. Our 17 year old 5% T-bond target was achieved last month.

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Net inflows into equity funds lagged somewhat behind last January. We estimate U.S. focus equity funds experienced still strong net inflows of $17 billion, but foreign focus net inflows may have been less than $1 billion (net redemptions in the first few weeks).

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It still appears to be premature, but we are giving serious consideration to adding a package of selected high yield corporate bonds to the fixed income component of the two asset allocation models.

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