GS Scores
Asset Management & Custody Banks: New Purchase
The last time this group held an Attractive rating for an extended period of time was 2000. Based on the group’s extended underperformance, induced by repercussions of the global financial crisis, we think it may finally be poised for a turnaround.
HR & Employment Services: Intriguing Candidate
Until now, this group has been out of favor per our quantitative disciplines for the entirety of the bull market, making its newfound attractiveness particularly interesting. Even an 80% return in 2013 hasn’t brought relative performance back to levels achieved during the previous bull market.
Highlighted Attractive Groups and GS Score Sector Rankings
Cable & Satellite, Education Services, Human Resources & Employment Services
Bought Drug Retail = Consumer + Health Care In One Dose
A new position in Drug Retail was added to the Select Industries Portfolio in April. The latest update to the Group Selection (GS) Score showed improvement in several factor categories which pushed the overall score back to Attractive.
Purchased Reinsurance: GS Score Skyrockets
Reinsurance has rated Attractive for a little over one year, but the latest round of GS Scores sent this group’s score skyrocketing, and it now ranks fourth highest among all 115 industry groups. Select Industries Portfolio overall insurance industry group exposure now 8.1%.
Small Cap Biotech Valuations: Proceed With Caution
While Large/Mid Cap Biotechnology companies are boasting rising profitability, better cash flows, and stronger drug pipelines, the Small/Micro Cap Biotech firms, in general, have little tangible to show and valuations may be above the comfort zone.
GS Score Sector Rankings, and Highlighted Attractive Groups
Health Care, Info Tech, and Consumer Discretionary are the top three rated broad sectors.
Group Selection Scores Off To A Great Start In 2015
Most of the factor trends that were in place at the end of 2014 have continued in 2015 thus far.
Selected Attractive Groups
Health Care Distributors, Movies and Entertainment, and Cable & Satellite.
Can Consumer Discretionary Relative Strength Continue?
Despite this sector’s extended outperformance, we think this trend may persist in the near term as Discretionary industry groups look increasingly attractive within our group work. Keeping an eye on the Fed Funds rate is key, however.
Paper Industry: Global Trade Headwind
Lower energy prices will benefit the paper industry as it is among the most energy intensive of Materials groups. Yet, global implications may produce a headwind, offsetting the benefit of lower oil costs.
Selected Attractive Groups
Advertising, Health Care Services, Auto Parts & Equipment
Airlines Remain Attractive And Still Have Positive Fundamental Story
Even after several years of relative outperformance, Airlines currently ranks fourth highest among the 115 groups we track. Our confidence is supported by the compelling fundamental story. Management has been making disciplined decisions in the face of rising demand and falling fuel prices.
Selected Attractive Groups
Homefurnishing Retail, Apparel Retail, Systems Software
Retail Theme Compelling; Purchased Hypermarkets
Retail-related industry groups continue to strengthen in our GS Scores, and Hypermarkets & Super Centers is one of the top rated groups in our rankings. This also gives exposure to Consumer Staples, currently the highest rated among our composite sector scores.
Upgraded Attractive Groups
The best performing Attractive industries in 2014 came from five different sectors. Looking to 2015, groups from the Information Technology, Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, and Consumer Staples sectors look appealing.
A Good Year For Leuthold Industry Group Scores
Last year was a solid one for the Group Selection (GS) Score approach, with the Attractive list delivering a total return of +13.1%—more than 500 basis points above The Leuthold Group Universe average, which gained only +7.9%.
Still Bullish On Domestic Oil Refiners
Amidst the Energy sector tumult, the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing group is the exception.
Retail Groups Rise In The Ranks
A new theme emerging within our GS Scores—Retail related industry groups are flocking to the upper rankings of the scores.
Tech Poised To Outperform!
Our GS Scores currently rank Information Technology as the second highest rated among the ten broad sectors.