Global
Ruminations On The Correction
If our market disciplines turn bullish in the weeks ahead, we’ll certainly follow that lead—covering remaining shorts, re-establishing a semi-aggressive market position, and wiping egg off our faces for having called a “cyclical bear market” that slammed the Russell 2000 (-26%), EAFE (-26%), and Emerging Markets (-37%)… but somehow not the one most followed, the S&P 500 (-14%).
Core & Global Asset Allocation Portfolios
Major Trend Index strengthened in April; net equity exposure increased to 61%
A Quick Check On Global Fundamentals
The Street’s most clever invention is “12-month forward operating earnings” because the stock market invariably appears cheap on the basis of such inflated estimates.
Core & Global Asset Allocation Portfolios
Major Trend Index Neutral: Equity Exposure Remains 52-53%
Core & Global Asset Allocation Portfolios
We increased equity exposure back above 50% in mid-November as a result of the MTI returning to Neutral.
Core & Global Asset Allocation Portfolios
Major Trend Index turned negative and as of early October, we are now targeting 40% net equity exposure.
Core & Global Asset Allocation Portfolios Competitive With Benchmarks Despite Maintaining Reduced Equity Exposure
Net equity target is 55%; waiting for clearer signal from our Major Trend Index (currently rated Neutral).
Core & Global Asset Allocation Portfolios’ Net Equity Exposure Unchanged At 65-66%
Both Portfolios lagged all-equity benchmarks in June; but still ahead YTD.
Core & Global Asset Allocation Portfolios’ Net Equity Exposure Unchanged At 65%
Both Portfolios matched their all-equity benchmarks in May, and are outperforming YTD.
Core & Global Portfolios Net Equity Exposure Unchanged At 64-65%
Both Portfolios ahead of their all-equity benchmarks YTD.
Core & Global Portfolios Equity Exposure Unchanged In April
The Major Trend Index remains positive, and our portfolios continue outpacing the market. Net exposure is 65% in both the Core and Global portfolios.
Core & Global Portfolios Equity Exposure Increased Slightly In February
The Major Trend Index remains positive, and net exposure is 65% in the Core and 64% in Global.
Core & Global Portfolios Equity Exposure Maintained In January
The Major Trend Index remains positive and net exposure is 63% in the Core and 62% in Global.
Core & Global Portfolios Equity Exposure Maintained In December
The Major Trend Index remains positive and net exposure in both portfolios is 64%. For all of 2013, our average net equity exposure was 60% in each portfolio.
Core & Global Portfolios Equity Exposure Raised Slightly As Hedge Reduced
The Major Trend Index remains positive and, as expected, our temporary ETF hedge was lifted. Our net exposure in both portfolios is now 64%-65%.
Core & Global Portfolios Equity Exposure Trimmed Slightly To 60%
The Major Trend Index remains positive, but we reduced our target exposure from 62% to 60% using a short ETF as we believe this position will be temporary in nature.
Industry Groups: No Need To Bottom-Fish
Buying global groups with strong price momentum has been a winning strategy. Will it continue?
Global Yield Curve Confirms “Muddle Through” View
The global yield curve is in a sideways range bound pattern, indicating anemic demand for credit. An examination of developed and emerging countries confirms our “muddle through” view.
GLOBAL EQUITIES: Putting A Price On Youth
An interesting take on country demographics versus valuations.
“Another” Year Of Gains?
U.S. equity investors were disappointed in 2011, but we’d point out they fared better than investors in 45 of 48 other countries tracked by MSCI.
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