GDP
Market Interrelationships: “Unlearning” What We Thought We Knew
Doug Ramsey examines several once very reliable relationships between stocks, bonds, inflation, and commodities.
The GDP Report: “Exhuming McCarthy”
Significant disconnect between GDP Deflator and CPI. Recent GDP report implies a 1.1% inflation rate. It is ridiculous to assume the inflation rate is that low with the CPI at +5.5%.
Economic Watch
Even though government statistics do not yet indicate a declining quarter of real GDP growth, we believe we are, in fact, in the grip of a recession.
The GDP Report You Didn’t Read
We’re back on form after last month’s praise of government economists... questioning the value of the GDP Deflator.
U.S. Economy Skirts Recession In Q4, Or Does It?
It now appears that the downward bias in inflationary pressures suggested by the CPI data is tame compared to the GDP Deflator. And if this is true, investors may be operating under a false sense of security that economic growth remains positive (albeit ever so slight).
The Economy And The Stock Market
The stock market tends to peak out 6-12 months prior to recession but turns back up prior to the end of a recession.
Inflation Is A Potential Threat
Inflation prospects are especially unclear. While many inflation gauges seem to be slowing, the threat of an inflation flare-up remains.
Inflation Watch
CPI on a twelve month basis expected to decelerate further over the next month or two. Final two months of the year, however, could be another story, with CPI twelve month inflation reaccelerating.
Today's Economic Recovery In Perspective
On a long term basis, we continue to be concerned about the sustainability of the current economic expansion, and we expect a significant slowdown by mid 2007.
Inflation Watch
CPI on a twelve month basis is expected to decelerate further over the next two months. The final 3 months of the year, however, could be another story.
Has The Yield Curve Lost Its Luster?
The traditional definition versus the new definition of an inversion...How real GDP has responded historically to past yield curve inversions….Effect of inversions on Financial stocks.
Update On The Economy….Q4 Just A Bump In The Road...Or Something More?
Real GDP in Q4 was not too robust, but the numbers will likely be revised upward.
Total U.S. Market Capitalization As A Percentage Of GDP: An Alternative Valuation Perspective
Total U.S. Market Capitalization As A Percentage Of GDP: Identifying “Fair Value.”
Corporate And Consumer Too Leveraged?
Increased reliance on debt to finance growth can cause problems down the road.
Are There Any "Good" Numbers These Days?
Revisions continue: How many revisions are possible?
Unreal Expectations, Unreal Money = Lingering Pain
By Kate Welling - Companies are still acting, by and large, as if they have an inalienable right to spin numbers in whatever direction produces the most pleasing results.
View From The North Country
What are the economists missing? Dismal performance by practitioners of a dismal science! Jim Bianco, Bianco Research L.L.C., helps shed some light on the subject: “GDP Reality vs. Perception”.
October: The Month Of Market Train Wrecks
Steve thinks too many people are looking for an Octber train wreck for it to happen, maybe in November. Market currently very short term oversold.
Profitless Prosperity
Earnings are declining, while stock prices are marching higher. GDP strong, but corporate profits have weakened considerably.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
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March 2026 Issue
