Fixed Income

Strong economic news, and rising inflation trends  make further Fed tightening likely.

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Rising stocks and still good economic news make third Fed boost likely.

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Rising stocks and better economic news could increase chance of third Fed boost near term.

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Two recent bump-up’s in rates by Fed may not be enough.

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Last month’s 25 basis point bump-up by Fed will not be the last. More tightening seems likely.

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Recent 25 basis point bump-up by Fed will not be the last. More tightening seems likely but T-bonds now look to be in the high end of a buying zone.

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Strong likelihood the Fed will tighten in next few months, but today’s market rates may already factor in future 25-50 basis point Fed bump up in short rates.

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New inflation fears and strong economy contributing to higher yields. Think Fed may tighten (50% likelihood) in coming months to slow down amazing economy.

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New inflation fears and strong economy contributing to higher yields. Fed may tighten in coming months to slow down this high powered economy.

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Big Rise in Treasury yields has resulted in improved risk/reward profile for T-bonds.

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At current levels U.S. T-bonds are viewed as neutral.  U.S. T-bond upside potential now only slightly above downside potential.

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Weight of the evidence bond market discipline shifted to negative from neutral this month.

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Economy Humming Along...Fed Not Done Yet...Inflation Still Number One Worry

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis, but long T-bond six month risk seen only as 8.25%-8.50% level, with 12 month risk at 8.50% level.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis, but long T-bond six month risk seen only as 8.25%-8.50% level, with 12 month risk at 8.50% level.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis, but rally seems underway.

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Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative.

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Time for an attitude adjustment? We have seen some fat returns on long fixed income securities since rates peaked in 1981. What can we expect from bonds in the future? To help answer this question we look at three sample bonds using a 5 and 10 year risk/reward framework.

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