Emerging Markets

Airlines are Attractive in both group models, but there could be trouble on the horizon as emerging market carriers face the challenges of rapid growth.

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While U.S. stocks have surged this year, Emerging Markets have languished. What is going on in Emerging  Markets to cause this unusual situation?

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The global economy is stuck in a “muddle through” mode with developed and emerging countries showing divergence in terms of leading indicators. Despite this divergence, they share one thing in common: an upturn in inflation. How much more room there is for easing is a key determinant of asset market performance.

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Changes in a major EM ETF’s benchmark and another big player’s new EM ETF introduction could provide stock pickers opportunities in select Emerging Markets.

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We’ve published a series of research notes detailing our thoughts on the Health Care sector in Emerging Asia and formed a thematic group “Asia Healthy Tigers.” Even though most of the investable companies in Emerging Market Health Care are located in Asia, we decided to expand to other regions as well. 

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Is it time to reverse the “long U.S. consumer/short China” trade?

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Taking into account the variety of total return contributors, we conclude that no one regional equity market stands out as a slam dunk investment idea.

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Leuthold’s Jun Zhu provides some color on a new thematic group: “Asia Advertising Spending Beneficiaries.”

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Leuthold’s Eric Weigel examines both positive and negative tail risk among asset classes over two time periods… the recent volatile era versus a preceding, not-as-volatile time period.

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Chinese Pharmaceuticals have been sold off considerably in recent months, but look very attractive on a valuation basis. There are fundamental problems, but in light of China’s objective of universal health care coverage there is significant upside. See “Healthy Tigers” update in “Inside The Stock Market”.

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The Leuthold Group has always been a big proponent of sector rotation strategies. In this month’s “Inside The Stock Market” section, Jun Zhu examines sector rotation in emerging markets and presents a series of ETFs that facilitate this strategy.

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Jun Zhu examines the use of Emerging Market Mutual Fund Flow as a sentiment indicator. It works best as a buy signal, but is not bad as a sell signal. Currently neither on a buy or sell.

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Asset allocation portfolios continue to hold big positions in Emerging Markets. Jun Zhu presents an initial study exploring the use of Emerging Market Closed End Funds historical premium/discount levels as a predictor of future Emerging Market performance.

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Focus of global investing has shifted from sector and is now centered on the regional effect.

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When clients ask about our country views, we suggest they take a look at our global group work because our Global Group Scores are capable of capturing country alpha!

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In mid May, 4% of assets were shifted from U.S. stocks to Emerging Market holdings, buying a package of individual Asian stocks. This same package is being used to boost exposure to 70% in early June.

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Superior performance of foreign stocks of late is likely only the preamble to what the rest of the cyclical bull market will look like.

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Now could be the time to get in before markets fully discount the potential growth and better assess the risk.

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Steve presents his mid year outlook for “Alternative Investments”

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Emerging Markets have attracted a lot of investor interest...possibly too much interest. This seems to be just about everyone’s favorite investment for 2007.

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