Elections

While midterm elections are not typically big market movers, there is really nothing typical about 2022.

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We’ve read far too much about what Joe Biden and a newly-blue Congress might do in the months ahead, but less so about the conditions Biden and his team inherit. Such “initial conditions” usually have a heavy hand in policy outcomes, market outcomes, and even a president’s legacy.

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As we Chinese watch the elegant display of the western democratic process this election season, we can’t help but think there are indeed people less fortunate than us “commies.” Worse yet, some of these people are Value investors.

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“That which does not kill us, makes us stronger” might be a good motto for this never-ending bull market. The bull continues to shrug off the effects of both Quantitative Tightening and an escalating trade war, and it’s doing so during a seasonal stretch in which many of its predecessors have sunk to their knees (if not their demise).

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We wrote in May the mid-year months of a mid-term election year are historically the weakest for the stock market from a calendar perspective. Large Caps, however, have mostly bucked that pattern.

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General patterns are a weaker dollar, rising stocks and range-bound bond yields.

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We are entering the most bearish window among the potential combinations of the Presidential Election Cycle and the Annual Cycle.

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What worked, what didn’t; what you need to consider for investing in Emerging Markets this year.

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A “dozen” major market measures have moved to new bull market highs in the last three months. But many of these have been the groups that do best when “risk” is “off,” and may be a reason “Ain’t Nobody Happy,” even in an up year. 

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The U.S. bull market is mature and I believe the odds are better than even that 2013 will see a cyclical top.

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Does The Market Have A Party Preference In The Presidential Election? Results are a wash, so investors might rethink their assumptions about party affiliation and market performance.

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With “That Time Of Year” approaching and the Major Trend Index not too far above the neutral zone, we review nine factors impacting the stock market from a glass-half-empty perspective.

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From the stock market to politics to football, Doug Ramsey offers up ten predictions and thoughts for the New Year…. Even though we’ve already had a one month “peek” at 2012.

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This month’s “Of Special Interest” takes a look back at and updates some our favorite charts from 2010.

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Now that the election is over and QE2 in the works, resist the temptation to “sell the news.” We expect to see the market rally through the end of the year. Sentiment still benign and valuations still attractive.

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Prompted by a client request, Eric Bjorgen examines the impact of mid-term elections on the stock market.

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There’s an overwhelming consensus that the U.S. economy has slipped into a long-term phase of declining growth in real GDP and chronically higher unemployment. Here’s a dissenting opinion from a client, along with Steve Leuthold’s response.

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Leuthold shares summary comments on various subjects, such as Consumer Sentiment, and the dollar, among others. Also, airlines as growth stocks (?) and the 2006 Elections: the Incumbent advantage still dominates.

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Election should be a non-event for stock market. No matter which party gains control of House or Senate, we expect to see two more years of gridlock. Also, still bullish on Industrial Metals and the unusual behavior of U.S. Equity Fund Flows.

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An analysis comparing S&P 500 performance for the current election year to the performance averages of all election cycles since 1944.

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