Dreams

The “Dreams” portfolio represents a simple industry group trend-following approach, while the “Nightmares” portfolio serves as a bottom-fishing strategy made up of the previous year’s biggest losers.

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For nearly three decades The Leuthold Group has tracked hypothetical portfolios composed of the previous year’s industry group “Dreams” and “Nightmares.”

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For nearly three decades The Leuthold Group has tracked its hypothetical industry group portfolios composed of the previous year’s “Dreams” (best performers) and “Nightmares” (worst performers).

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A review of the past year’s performance of “Dream” and “Nightmare” equity groups from back in 2014.

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For more than a quarter century, The Leuthold Group has tracked hypothetical industry group portfolios composed of the previous year’s “Dreams” (best performers) and “Nightmares” (worst performers). The former is a gauge of a simple, trend-following investment strategy, while the latter is a crude form of industry group “bottom-fishing.” Sticking with tradition, the following pages detail how the 2013 Dream and Nightmare portfolios faired in 2014, and we reveal which industries qualify in the Dream and Nightmare portfolios of 2014.

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For 25 years we’ve tracked hypothetical industry group portfolios comprised of the previous year’s “Dreams” (20 best performers) and “Nightmares” (20 worst performers).

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Some of the best and worst performers of 2011 repeated their performance in 2012.

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How did 2010’s “Dreams” and “Nightmares” pan out in 2011? What are 2011’s hypothetical portfolios predicting for 2012?

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Doug Ramsey previews the 2011 hypothetical “Dream Portfolio” (or perhaps, “fear” portfolio). What would the portfolio manager with perfect foresight owned at the beginning of 2011? Should one now begin or continue to invest in the components of the Dream Portfolio?

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Of Special Interest asks “Should You Hold On To Last Year’s Winners?” by examining the Dreams, Nightmares and Bridesmaid strategies. This year, our analysis expands beyond equity groups to the sector and asset class levels.

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Based on loud bearish complaints about the “junk rally”—and our commentary on the Revenge-of-the-Nerds (anti-momentum) effect—it should come as no surprise that 2009 marked the most dramatic reversal of industry leadership we have seen in our twenty-plus years of tracking this work.

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Even with perfect hindsight, an investor who purchased the 20 best performing groups in 2008 would have generated a 13% loss for the year. The 20 worst performing groups had an average loss of 62.5%.

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2007’s “Good, Bad, and Ugly” of The Leuthold Group research; Leuthold Group Selection (GS) Scores performance review; Weighted index vs. Un-Weighted index performance; and 2007’s “Dreams & Nightmares” portfolios.

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A look back at the performance one would have achieved by investing in the year’s best groups and the pain felt from investing in the worst performing groups in 2006. We also examine the strategy of buying a prior year’s winners and losers in anticipation of better performance the following year.

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The year’s best and worst performing groups. Buying 2004 big winners produced good 2005 performance. How will 2005 winners do in 2006?

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It would have been a successful strategy to buy the 20 worst sectors from 2003 at the start of 2004.

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This month’s “Dreams & Nightmares” shows the best and worst performing equity groups in 2003. Be careful about buying 2003’s big winners. A better strategy can be achieved by buying the year’s biggest losers.

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An examination is made of the previous year’s leaders and laggards to see if success could have been attained by buying last years big winners (or the big losers).

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Per client request, we examine 2001 portfolio early, in order to preview the year’s winners and losers.

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Mid-year update how an investor would have done if they had been fortunate enough to invest in the 20 best performing industry groups (and visa versa).

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