Dollar

In last month’s “View From The North Country” Steve Leuthold outlined his case for a strong dollar. This issue, we just wanted to show the updated charts, and comment that the rally appears to have begun.

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This month’s “View From The North Country” presents data showing periods where interest rates (both long T-bonds and 90 day T-bills) rose and stocks also rose. It can happen!

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Much of the upward price movement in commodity prices, as measured in U.S. dollars, is the result of the weak dollar. A weaker dollar has an inflationary impact on U.S. prices.

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Performance results make a case that a declining dollar may be more favorable to large caps than small caps.

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Study shows market performance not too bad over six periods when dollar is declining…..Which groups also perform in such an environment?

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U.S. corporations must pay almost 300 basis points more to borrow in U.S. dollars than in Swiss francs. Why is there such a difference?

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The dithering dollar. Did we miss our golden opportunity? Some think there is current hope for Social Security reform. Is new NASDAQ rule an uptick or upchuck? The bears are howling.

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The bond market is looking increasingly vulnerable. The economy appears to be deteriorating, inflation is nowhere in sight and short rates are declining. With all this going for it, why is the bond market stagnating?

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Politics and the Stock Market...Fiscal Reform the Hard Way...What's Up With Gold (Not Much except a Weak Dollar)...Eskom (South Africa's Electric Utility) Bonds: A 20% Yield with Some Risk As Well

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War, recession, falling oil prices and other good inflation news combined to support the U.S. fixed income markets in January.

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All things considered, the bond market held up well in July. And even though the dollar index slid about 4%, there was little progress on the deficit front and inflation fears rose with oil prices. These bond market negatives were offset by increasing evidence of a recession in the works.

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After years of historical research and endless plotting of productivity trends, our constant vigilance and ceaseless monitoring of vital economic and industrial currents has revealed an amazing correlation. Herein Mr. Leuthold offers his sage wisdom and several solutions to domestic sagging productivity.

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How do you make a stock market play on the declining dollar? This is not as simple as it may first appear. Three approaches are discussed, concluding the best approach might be buying selected major U.S. exporters.

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How High the Moon? How much longer can the strength in the dollar continue?.....Change in Outlook For “Value Stocks? Not really. Several months ago, this publication expressed concern over the growing popularity of “value” investing, reducing portfolio emphasis. Then in this issue we added three new “value” stocks to the portfolio. What’s going on?

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If you believe drug stocks are really a play on future weakness in the dollar, you better read this study. We like the drugs, but not for this reason. Drug stocks at one time were sensitive to dollar fluctuations but over the last four years this has not been the case.

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