DJIA
The Bigger The Bear, The Better The Bull?
Does a bigger Bear market equate to a bigger Bull market recovery?
Worse Than It Looks… And Not Over
Most costly market decoy in the last six weeks has been unusual (relative) strength of the Dow and S&P 500 indexes. Resilience in blue chips is characteristic of the early and middle phases of a bear market, but recent blue chip performance has been so stellar (again, in a relative sense) that most investors curled up comfortably in the “correction” camp…while small caps, cyclicals and virtually all foreign markets were screaming “BEAR!”
Bear Market Facts—A Refresher
This month’s “Of Special Interest” examines the bear market facts. Doug Ramsey doesn’t expect the current bear market to reach historical bear market medians in terms of decline or duration. Non-economic bear markets are usually much shorter than recession-induced bears.
The Bull Market’s Technical “Book Ends”
The 30-point collapse in the S&P 500 on Tuesday, August 2nd completed a bearish H&S pattern that has been several months in the making.
Dow Performance: A Matter Of Weighting...
Are the Dow Industrials benefiting from trivial weighting? Slicing our Leuthold 3000 universe into market cap deciles shows different performance results than commonly followed market indices.
It’s Been Better Than It’s “Felt”
The latest bull market has now essentially matched the returns for all bull market recoveries dating back to 1900. Remarkably, it has accomplished this in only half the normal time frame.
Is There Trouble In The Transports?
The new low in the Dow Jones Transports is a bullish portent, but only if the Dow Jones Industrials can hold above their November low.
Struck Down By The "Killer Wave"
Last January we noted the appearance of a rare and dangerous technical configuration in the Dow Jones Industrials Average. Some analysts have described this topping pattern as the “Killer Wave”, and did it ever live up to that nickname in 2008.
Bear Market Epitaph?
While we can’t be certain that the final figures for the bear market have been booked, it’s worth putting the last 14 months of action into perspective.
Technical Comment: No Worries Over “Dow Theory?"
Dow Theorists looking at current market environment may be concluding stocks could weaken further. However, historically when confirmation from the Transports takes an excessively long time to develop (like it has currently), the technical pattern has actually provided an excellent buy signal.
Changes In The Capital Gains Tax Rate Vs. Stock Market Performance
Prospects for increase to capital gains tax caused us to examine the historical impact such changes have on stock market performance, 1917 to date. The record is not very encouraging.
Dow Double Trouble
Our VLT (Very Long Term) Momentum algorithm—alternatively known as the Coppock Curve or “Madness of Crowds”—has just rolled over after forming a rare “double top” formation. Why has the rare VLT Double Top typically proven lethal for the stock market?
Breadth & Leadership: Bull Markets Rarely (S)Top On A Dime
Market breadth moved down in tandem with stock market indices, but is not showing any divergences. All advance/decline lines were making new highs just before the downturn, and bull markets do not end with advance/decline data posting new highs.
Transportation Stocks As Economic Warning Signal
Six of eight recessions since 1957 saw signals registered by the Transportation Divergence monitor. Recent divergence may be warning of an impending economic contraction.
Steve The Technician
Last month, we had a request for technical readings on the major market indices. Being a long time card carrying member of the Market Technicians Association, I decided I should oblige.
View From The North Country
Full Disclosure (Reg FD), Investment Banking conflicts (hardly a recent development) and the Nikkei and DJIA: Will they cross this year?
The Dow Jones Industrial Index...Before and After
Dow Jones gets a Tech infusion. Still not up to S&P 500 Tech weight.
The Mixed Month Of May
The S&P 500 eased 2.5% in May, while measures of smaller cap stocks edged up 1% to 2%. Major Trend Index has shifted to negative status. Dow Jones 40,000?
First Quarter 1999: Only Indexers And Internet Players Liked It
S&P 500’s cap weighted 5% Q1 return overwhelmed most active manager’s returns.
The Mixed Messages Of January
It was a shaky 1998 start, but the U.S. equity markets got it together after the big hit on January 9th (-3%).
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
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