Diffusion Index
Emerging Markets: Fundamental Diffusion Indicators
Within EM, more robust growth is being exhibited by: 1) firms in Emerging Europe; 2) companies in Energy, Materials, and Financials; and, 3) larger cap companies.
Inflation Acceleration Likely In 2011
Commodity Diffusion Index pointing toward higher inflation.
Commodity Diffusion Index Signaling Inflation Pressures Building
Commodity Diffusion Index pointing toward higher inflation. While weak dollar has helped push commodity prices higher, a Diffusion Index converted to a strong currency like the Swiss Franc also is at very high inflationary levels.
Beware The Economic Ticker Tape
It has become more and more difficult to filter out the short term economic noise. By focusing on this minutia, investors can easily lose sight of the big picture.
Mild Inflation, But No Deflation In 2010
It may feel like a deflationary environment, but the CPI is not likely to end 2010 with a twelve month deflationary reading.
Year End Twelve Month CPI Deflation Reading Unlikely
Looking ahead to 2011, we are keeping a close eye on Housing, Food and Wages, which all could be bottoming out.
Inflation Tame
Looking ahead to 2011, we are keeping a close eye on Housing, Food and Wages, which all could be bottoming out.
Mild CPI Inflation Expected In 2010
The greatest danger in late 2010 and 2011 is monetary debasement inflation, not demand based inflation.
Mild CPI Inflation Expected In 2010
The greatest danger in late 2010 and 2011 is monetary debasement inflation, not demand based inflation.
Mild CPI Inflation Expected In 2010
Mild CPI Inflation Expected In 2010 (+3.2%); Higher PPI Inflation (+6.0%)
Weak Dollar Could Continue To Contribute To Higher Commodity Prices
U.S. commodity prices are again trending higher, like they did in 2002, as the U.S. economy recovered. The weak U.S. dollar helped, and recent rally might not last.
Leuthold Commodity Diffusion Index Remains Negative
Like they did in 2002, as the U.S. economy recovered, U.S. commodity prices are again trending higher.
Mild Inflation Next Twelve Months
This transition from deflation to mild inflation will be a “numbers game” as late 2009 readings are compared against late 2008’s strong deflationary readings, driving the twelve month rate up.
Commodity Diffusion Index Now Signaling Rising Inflation
Commodity Diffusion Index hit 75%, an indication of rising inflation pressures. Moves above 70% in this inflation gauge have served as a pretty good sell signal for stocks.
Inflation Outlook: Worrisome
CPI and PPI monthly inflation kicked up a bit with February readings and could do so again when March results are released.
Inflation Still A Potential Threat
Inflation trends are a mixed bag at present.
Commodity Diffusion Index
Falling dollar in recent years has helped drive commodity prices higher. See “Of Special Interest” for a discussion of our Euro Adjusted Commodity Diffusion Index. It is not as inflationary as the Traditional Commodity Diffusion Index, which is now at levels not seen since the late 1970s.
The 2004 Inflation Front
Inflation may prove to be a big surprise in 2004. This month’s “Of Special Interest” highlights several of the monitors we are watching regarding inflation.
Inflation Update…..Consensus View Underestimating Inflation Prospects
Consensus view (2% inflation rate by year end), is underestimating inflation prospects. We forecast 12 month CPI rising to +3.0 to +3.5% by year end. If we are correct, inflation is not fully incorporated into current bond prices.
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