Cyclicals

A glance at the popular market averages made April look like a pretty good month in the stock market. But if your equity performance in April matched those numbers, you must have had a well-oiled portfolio of deep cyclicals.

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Secondary stocks’ August performance, growth vs. cyclical and growth vs. value performance, S&P and DIJA historical valuations and the Royal Blue Index.

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At this point, our work does not yet confirm a longer term shift in market leadership from growth to cyclical. Perhaps such a confirmation will take place in coming months (we suspect it will).

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Last month this publication noted that “deep cyclicals” were intriguing but unimpressive from a technical standpoint. Then in the last two weeks of May, the cyclicals exploded on the upside, especially in the last week of the month.

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The two most common questions we hear from equity only managers are: “When (if ever) should we start buying secondary stocks?” and “When do you expect a market leadership shift to the cyclicals?”

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The two most out of favor segments of the market are the natural resource areas (including oils) and the big, bad cyclicals. These stocks should provide great profit potential in coining months, but not yet. In this issue, a new 47 stock index is introduced to aid in timing this potential tactical move.

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Skittishly Bullish best describes our attitude. June was disappointing, significantly eroding our analytical work even though the popular averages drifted only slightly lower. The time is coming for the Natural Resource Disaster Area and the Super Sick Cyclicals. It's still too early, but we are sharpening up the timing tools.

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