Cyclical Bull
Too Many New Highs To Make A High?
The number of NYSE 52-Week Highs typically peaks during the bull market’s strongest leg, before contracting into the final top. Last month, Net New Highs made a three-year high—implying more upside.
Stick With What’s Working (Until It’s Not)
The year has been especially tough on managers who might have shared our cyclical worries over the stock market, but who’ve elected to stay fully invested via seemingly lower risk value approaches.
A Page For The Bulls
While we have a high level of conviction on our August bear market call, we should emphasize that our disciplines trump opinions.
Value, Momentum, And The Stock Market Cycle
Conventional measures of market action, like breadth and industry leadership, point to the formation of a bull market top. Divergences abound.
Faded Photographs: Obituary Of The Bull Market
How will today’s bull market be viewed through the eventual clarity and objectivity of hindsight? We’ve pulled together several still frames that we think best capture the essence of this historic run.
Two For The Price Of One?
Think the bull market is long in the tooth at almost six years of age? Maybe not.
Bulled Over
The Major Trend Index has experienced a bout of instability since April, twice retreating to its Neutral zone before the bull market promptly overrode both signals.
Everyone Gets A Trophy
It’s not just kids’ sports where the achievement bar has been lowered.
Is The Glass “Half Full”?
A “dozen” major market measures have moved to new bull market highs in the last three months. But many of these have been the groups that do best when “risk” is “off,” and may be a reason “Ain’t Nobody Happy,” even in an up year.
Ten Charts To Chew On
There are twelve critical indexes (using Big Ten math) that have failed to “confirm” September’s new cyclical bull market highs in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials.
Stock Market Observations
The U.S. bull market is mature and I believe the odds are better than even that 2013 will see a cyclical top.
Technical Glitches
This summer’s rally has taken stocks to the brink of another bull market high, but it has not been an all-inclusive affair. While the NYSE Daily Advance/Decline Line has remained healthy, other technical indicators have not.
An “Old” Bull Market… That Should Get “Older”
The bull market is increasingly showing signs of advanced age, but that is only to be expected for a move that now measures 40 months off its March 2009 low.
Does The “Beta Breakdown” Matter?
Significant pull-back in High Beta stocks, but the weakening bid does not necessarily spell the end of the bull market.
MTI Goes Neutral; Next Few Weeks Critical
For now, net equity exposure in both the Core and Asset Allocation Portfolios will remain around 60%, as we wait to see what happens to this analysis in coming weeks.
It’s Been Better Than It’s “Felt”
The latest bull market has now essentially matched the returns for all bull market recoveries dating back to 1900. Remarkably, it has accomplished this in only half the normal time frame.
Here We Go Again?
Doug Ramsey looks at the history of “severe” market corrections (declines of 12% to 18%), and contrasts that with true bear markets.
Bull Market Milestones: How the Current Bull Stacks Up to Past Cycles
This month’s “Of Special Interest” examines the characteristics of past bull market recoveries. Using a variety of historical comparisons, the current recovery is put into some perspective. The majority of these comparisons seem to indicate the current recovery still has a ways to go.
Despite January, Big Picture Still Bullish
Don’t think we’ve seen a cyclical top, because that would mean everything essentially topped at the same time. Breadth has yet to peak in this cycle and that is one reason we expect the market to move higher over the near term.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
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March 2026 Issue
