Cycles
How Will It All End?
Last month we described ourselves as “long on equities, but light on conviction,” and that description still applies.
The Surprising Winners In Emerging Markets
While we expect an eventual break in this relationship, today Emerging Market equities are following, fairly tightly, the cycle of industrial commodities—a cycle that rolled over (on a secular basis, we believe) in 2011.
A Milestone You Might Have Missed
The fifth anniversary of the bull market was met with fanfare, but the launch of the Large Cap leadership cycle in April 2011 is receiving no attention whatsoever.
New “Lower Risk” Signal Generated
Bond Market Risk Aversion Index fell in December, resulting in a new “lower risk” signal that closed out the “higher risk” signal which occurred back in May. We are now cautiously optimistic.
Leuthold Stock Quality Rankings—Tracking Quality And Risk Cycles
A new High Quality Cycle has clearly emerged and is going strong. Note that the previous High Quality Cycle started at the end of 2007 and lasted more than a year.
Leuthold Stock Quality Rankings—Tracking Quality And Risk Cycles
High Quality Stocks outperformed their Low Quality comparators in the second quarter, and we find signs that a new High Quality Cycle is starting to take off.
Now Entering Increasing Risk Aversion Environment
Risk Aversion Index accelerated in May, making it prudent to favor defensive assets near term. Expect small and gradual increase in long term interest rates.
Insight Into The Cyclicality Of Equity Valuations
In this month’s “Of Special Interest”, Eric Bjorgen looks at the cyclical nature of P/E ratios. The normalized P/E ratio follows an expansion/contraction cycle that has been repeated five times since 1926, but the interesting thing is that the cycles have lengthened significantly over time.
Update On Non-Farm Payrolls....Buy Signal Likely With November Data
Non-farm payroll data is poised to register a buy signal for the stock market in early December. Using the year over year rate of change has historically been very effective in identifying recession-related market bottoms.
View From The North Country
Steve discusses his opinion of market cycle sin this month’s “View From The North Country”. He is a believer in cycles, but not so sure about rhythmic cycles. Also, his thoughts on the importance of market history.
Getting Later In The Game For The Bull Run
Getting late in the game for the bull run. This is no longer a young bull market, but we continue to believe the market can still move higher from here.
View From The North Country
Kate Welling Interviews Steve Leuthold: The Leuthold Group’s commonsensical adherence to investment disciplines, thoughts on rising inflation, attractive investment opportunities, Iraq, the reliability of U.S. government calculated statistics and estimates, and an abundance of other topics along with engaging banter.
Perception for the Professional
March 2026 Issue
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March 2026 Issue
