Capacity Utilization/Dollar Ratio

It’s easy to misread where the true “consensus” stands on any financial forecast. Here’s a disconnect we see in current consensus thought: The “crowd” seems broadly bullish on commodities, yet the same crowd (previously known as Team Transitory) thinks consumer price inflation is near a cycle high.

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Many analysts thought the last cycle would end with a bit of “fire” in the form of higher commodity and consumer prices, and they might well argue they would have been right if not for the eruption of COVID-19.

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Commodities were the worst performer among the major asset classes during 2018, with the S&P/Goldman Sachs Commodity Index losing 13.8% on a total return basis.

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