Bull Markets

Our tongue-in-cheek celebration of the bull market’s second birthday in late March looks premature. But the “Terrible Twos” we warned about have erupted in full force.

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Last spring and summer, we were incorrectly skeptical that a new bull had been born only five weeks after the death of oldest bull ever. But be careful with labels. Just as the “bear market” mindset caused us to overplay our hand last spring, equity bulls should not assume the current bull will look anything like the decade-long affairs we’ve seen twice in the last 30 years.

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The 200-day “report card” for this bull market shows the best initial-performance gain of all postwar bulls, but it’s come at a price. Investor sentiment is above levels seen at the same point of past bull markets… and there are the valuations. 

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One would think that one of the most explosive market rallies of all time would trip-off all the traditional “breadth thrust” signals, or maybe even invent a few of its own. Sorry, no luck.

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Economic and momentum considerations have kept us mostly aboard this bull for much longer than our value-seeking inner selves would have otherwise allowed.

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The hoopla falls short of that which surrounded birthdays #3-#7; based on the flood of assets into passive stock funds, it appears complacency has set in. Current bull close to becoming longest in history.

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Bull markets seem to create their own moods that lead to fundamental developments being viewed in a mostly favorable light.

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Call off the mortician, and bring on the pediatrician for the bull market’s 7 1/2-year checkup this month.

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Is there a statistical relationship between the height scaled by a given bull market and its subsequent decline? That correlation is in fact pretty tenuous, we’ve found.

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The cyclical bull market is approaching its fifth birthday. Should you be nervous? Yes, but not so much because of its age.

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Did we just get a Technical “all clear” sign? Is the trading day getting you down? What about corporate earnings, or sovereign debt and the stock market?

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We are in clear view of the “Twin Peaks” S&P 500 highs of the last decade and these should be eclipsed by mid-year. But when the S&P 500 is adjusted for inflation or denominated in Swiss Francs or Gold these highs may prove elusive.

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U.S. focused equity mutual funds see continued net outflows. A look back at mutual fund flows during past bull markets answers whether public participation is required to reach new stock market highs….And does a bigger Bear market equate to a bigger Bull market recovery?

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Bull markets following economic versus “non-economic” bear markets—what’s the difference?

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Despite the big October rebound, Doug Ramsey examines various market players and finds that dissatisfaction with recent market moves may proliferate among all but a select few.

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Major Trend Index fell to Negative at beginning of August. Assumption is that we are now in the beginning of a cyclical bear market that may produce a 20%-25% loss within the next six months or so.

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One of the great contrary trades in recent memory may well have been the Consumer Discretionary stocks during the last recession and early in the recovery. The consumer had been written off, but these stocks have been the clear market leader. It looks, however, like the move may be running out of steam.

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It is sobering to consider that an historic, 13-month market stampede (one now exceeding 75%) has done nothing more than restore the market to levels first seen twelve years ago.

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This month’s “Of Special Interest” examines the characteristics of past bull market recoveries. Using a variety of historical comparisons, the current recovery is put into some perspective. The majority of these comparisons seem to indicate the current recovery still has a ways to go.

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In this month’s “Of Special Interest”, Eric and Doug put the current market in historical context. They use a variety of factors to assess the potential for further upside.

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