Bear Market Rally

The short-term market surge certainly possesses the hallmarks of many previous bear-killers (or correction-killers)…but it also sports the look of many historical bear market rallies.

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Major Trend Index improved to Neutral but not offering any guidance as to whether this is a bear market rally or a bull market.

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This move now appears to be a “second” leg, not an extraordinarily large bear market rally and not a new cyclical bull market.

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Hopefully clients read the late July Interim memos. Truthfully, the move is a tad more than expected. What now? The last calculation of the Major Trend Index produced a still negative but improved reading. A new reading will be available August 7. Just a huge rally or a new bull market? I think it’s the latter, but want confirmation from our Major Trend Index.

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