Annualized Total Return

We find it remarkable that the five-year trailing real return on Treasurys has dropped to zero without investors having (yet) suffered any real pain.

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Profitable investing overseas requires not one, but two, successful decisions: 1) select an outperforming asset class; and, 2) be in a currency that provides a favorable foreign exchange impact.

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We were surprised to see that all differentials ten years and longer are still below their respective 1926-to-date medians, indicating they still have the potential to keep moving towards historical median levels. We expect stocks to outperform bonds going forward.

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Our “second best really is best” analysis comes up with an asset class we like and a sector we hate, plus trying it monthly doesn’t work out quite the way we thought it would.

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An extract from Leuthold & Anderson’s second quarter client letter.

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