Advance/Decline

The renewed embrace of risk hasn’t extended to the sector level. After resisting decline in late September through mid-October, defensive sectors have matched the rebound in Cyclicals, almost point for point.

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Remember that peaks in market breadth tend to lead peaks in the S&P 500 by at least a few months.

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The breadth of new market highs across multiple market indexes illustrates beyond a doubt that the stock market is “externally” in gear, but some analysts contend the market is showing “internal” signs of weakness.

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From a pure price action perspective, it’s difficult to find cracks in the bull market’s edifice.

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Whether one considers the post-2008 upswing two bull markets or one ultimately matters only to those who (like us) enjoy cataloging such things. But labeling the 2011-2013 rally a new bull market would certainly explain some of the “immature” behavior exhibited by U.S. stocks in recent months.

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Did we just get a Technical “all clear” sign? Is the trading day getting you down? What about corporate earnings, or sovereign debt and the stock market?

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A “dozen” major market measures have moved to new bull market highs in the last three months. But many of these have been the groups that do best when “risk” is “off,” and may be a reason “Ain’t Nobody Happy,” even in an up year. 

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Another breadth blastoff gives us reasons for optimism that our bullish predictions for the end of the year will hold.

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Market breadth has weakened considerably, which has historically been a big negative for stocks. However, the lead time between peaks in market breadth and eventual bull market peaks are long and variable.

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Why have Small Caps been outperforming Large Caps since January?

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Deteriorating stock market breadth was one of the factors contributing to the overall decline in the Major Trend Index to Negative status. An examination of the current Advance/Decline Lines shows the fade is continuing, and is particularly prevalent in the small cap indices.

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Market breadth improving, but still relatively weak. Narrowing breadth can, however, persist for a long time. There was a two year period of diverging breadth in 1998 to 1999, prior to the last bear market.

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The market rally in November, which carried many indexes to new highs, was not as broad-based as we like to see, but Breadth did improve some later in the month.

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Using Breadth Dynamics to assess strength of small cap stocks versus large cap stocks within various broad market sectors: Health Care, Materials, Consumer Discretionary, and Energy.

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Leuthold Group specialized Advance/Decline Lines indicate fading breadth among Small Caps.

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Market breadth using Advance/Decline Lines looks very bullish for stocks.

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Examining some of the impacts that decimalization and the inclusion of financial derivatives may have on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line & ARMs Index.

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Based on the weekly Advance/Decline line, market breadth has improved considerably. This is evidence of a much stronger underlying stock market than the S&P 500 and other measures might indicate.

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Despite the market’s weakness in March, the breadth experienced some deterioration in the last half of the month.

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Earnings Momentum appears to have slipped some in Q1. Peak earnings momentum now behind us. Expect slowdown, as economy cools and cost pressures heat up.

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